7-28-2012

A listener emails B and asks about the CIA's figure of 68 trillion dinar in Iraq's M2.  B says he doesn't believe it.  (I'm SHOCKED!  LOL!)  He says that every statement from the CBI says 30 trillion, so how can it be 70 trillion?  Well obviously those statements are talking about the M1 (cash), which is approximately 30 trillion.  But Iraq's foreign currency reserves are backing everything in the M2 (cash, electronic currency, financial instruments ... etc.) which is approximately 70 trillion.  B says he talks to economists and they can't figure out why the articles say 30 trillion and the financial statements say 70 trillion.  I have a hard time believing that any journeyman economist can't see a distinction between M1 and M2.  It would be like a mechanic not recognizing the difference between a transmission and a powertrain.  Just who are these economists he's talking to?


B calls the view that Iraq is maintaining a stable exchange rate by printing more money as their foreign currency reserves increase a "cockamamie idea".  Actually it's not a theory at all.  It's a documented fact that their foreign currency reserves figure is growing, their M2 figure is increasing, and their exchange rate is stable.  If you want to say those figures are wrong then your argument isn't with me or any other investor.  Your argument is with the CBI.  When Shabibi was in DC last year he talked about maintaining stability with the exchange rate, and it would appear that this is how they're doing that. 


B calls me a bubblehead again for taking exception to his statement that he doesn't see anything negatively affecting our investment.  He acknowledges that there are things that can slow down progress but they're still moving forward.  On that we agree, they're making progress at a snail's pace which is why nobody should expect to get rich off of owning dinar.  At best this is a long term highly speculative investment.  Maybe there's hope for B after all. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZU9AeXTzaE&feature=plcp


http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html

7-27-2012

B "explains" to a listener why the banks aren't dealing in dinar.  He says it's too much of a hassle to sell dinar, but he claims that they're still buying.  Here's my explanation for why they're not handling dinar.  They view the dinar investment as a scam.  B won't give you any documentation but I will.




This statement is from Wells Fargo:


“Some investors are curious about the Iraqi currency as a potential investment. Expectations for the currency to significantly gain in value against the dollar repeatedly have been disappointed since its introduction in 2004. Considering the illiquidity and fraud risk, Wells Fargo Bank has no plans to trade in the Iraqi currency, and considering that Iraq remains a dangerous place with an uncertain future, we strongly advise investors against taking the risk of buying Iraqi dinar as an investment.”


http://www.theiqdteam.com/uploads/3/5/3/7/3537881/internationalmarketsweekly.pdf






This is from the BOA website:

"Bank of America, N.A. does not buy or sell Iraqi Dinar (IQD) banknotes, and currently has no plans to offer this service in the future. You may have read on the Internet or heard from friends that Bank of America, N.A. buys and sells Iraqi Dinar banknotes, or has plans to offer this service. This information is not correct. We urge you to seek the advice of a competent, professional investment advisor before making an investment. You should treat with extreme caution any investment schemes you read about on the Internet, in chat rooms, or hear about from friends or acquaintances."

https://www4.bankofamerica.com/foreigncurrency/index.action?template=faqs#exchange_iraqi_dinar




Then there's this from the state of Washington Department of Financial Institutions:


"The Washington State Department of Financial Institutions is warning consumers about potential scams regarding Iraqi Dinar currency exchange services. While foreign exchange scams are not new, the sudden popularity with the Dinar and resulting consumer complaints to our banking partners is concerning."


http://www.dfi.wa.gov/consumers/alerts/iraqi-dinar-scams.htm






A listener asks Breitling about the possibility of not being able to withdraw his funds from Warka after the RV.  B asks "why would they do that?"  He then starts talking about supply times velocity and ISX which has nothing to do with the question.  Here's my response to B's question.  They would do that if they didn't have the money.  Warka is in custodianship, and has been for some time.   


"Central bank deputy governor Mudher Kasim said the custodianship decision was prompted by growing liquidity problems at Warka, its difficulties in meeting depositor withdrawals, and its failure to reach an agreement in talks with Standard Chartered on the foreign bank acquiring a majority stake."


http://www.iraq-businessnews.com/tag/warka-bank/




B then talks about how Iraq isn't ready to have the dominant currency in the region, and mentions that sometimes it's the government behind the currency that's the problem.  Agreed.  I say that all the time, and this is one of the negatives that could pose a problem for this investment.  Iraq's government is rife with corruption and incompetence, and yet B continues to say he doesn't see any negatives. 


B says he never invests in something he doesn't understand.  Well then ..... nah!  Too easy.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YAFY5JRDKI&feature=plcp


http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html

7-26-2012

B says I'm a shmuck for making a big deal out of cracking the Breitling case back in October when I wrote "Breitling Busted".  He says he was out there in the open meeting people all the time.  He says that there were a thousand people at the BH Group dinar summit last summer and he was shaking hands and meeting people and having a great time. 


Okay, first of all I've seen the BH Group's facilities and there's no way they could accomodate more than a few dozen people if that's where they met.  Maybe that was an exaggeration, or maybe he was referring to their trip to the ball park where nobody ever heard of Breitling or even cared, so no biggie.  The problem is he wasn't out there meeting people in the dinar world as Tony Elder.  Nobody knew that he had Roger and Angela Dorman listed as friends on his Facebook page until I reported that, and as soon as I did he revised it. 


I did a keyword search for "Tony Elder" and "dinar" in Google and here's what I came up with:

As you can see most of the results are from my blog.  The Dinar Vets result was shortly after I posted Breitling Busted, and the Iraqi Currency Watch result is Marcus Curtis' blog which got the information from my blog.  The same for Real Scam's site.  Sure, there were hundreds of references to Tony Breitling before I posted that, but nobody knew the name Tony Elder other than a few people close to Breitling like Roger Dorman, Rudy Coenen, and Brad Huebner. 

But the point of revealing his name wasn't to prove what a great cybersleuth I am.  It was to discover the nature of his relationship with Roger Dorman from Dinar Daddy.  As you may recall Roger had recently been exposed for introducing Angela from The Currency Vault (now The Treasury Vault) as a mere business acquaintence when in fact she is Mrs. Dorman.  So after that the dinar community knew that Roger was not just a forum owner but a partner in a dinar dealership.  And all the while Breitling was out there pumping the lower denoms with his Breitling Insurance deal from The Treasury Vault.  Then the ISX Report comes out and Roger was talking about "those guys at the ISX Report" putting together such a great report ... blah blah blah .... and when you order the report Breitling's company Select Play Media comes up on the PayPal page.  So yeah, I felt that it was important to get to the bottom of it and that's exactly what I did.  No apologies there.

B calls me "cheesedick" and "bubblehead" for saying that there are negative things happening in Iraq like the bomb that went off the other day killing 100 people.  "Did the rate go down?" he asked.  No, it didn't because it's not a free floating currency, but that's not the point.  Instability and violence discourage investment, which affects GDP, which affects our investment.  B said yesterday that he hasn't seen anything that would negatively affect our investment.  All you have to do is open your eyes.  Iraq is still a very dangerous place, and that danger means risk for investors.  Also, the CBI has issued numerous statements indicating their intent to lop.  A lop is bad for dinar investors.  B would have much more credibility if he would simply acknowledge these risks or "negatives" instead of saying he hasn't seen any.  

Interestingly enough B says later in the video that if everything goes bad in Iraq he still comes out ahead because he has already pulled out more than he put in.  So obviously he's very well aware of the risks, but he doesn't equally emphasize those risks to his listeners.  One of the things that a licensed investment advisor has to do is inform the client of all the risks in every investment opportunity.  These gurus don't do that, but then they're not licensed investment advisors anyway so why should we really expect them to?  That's why I started blogging about gurus.  They're not professionals.  Most are just hacks.  You're better off listening to a true expert like John Jagerson who will inform you of the risks.     

B says I'm taking shots at him.  Well if you define "taking shots" as pointing out factual errors and flawed analysis and offering documentation for your views then I guess I'm guilty.  If you call exposing a connection to a dinar dealer "taking shots" then I'm guilty as charged.  I don't call B names, I don't use profanity, I don't tell people he's drunk or vomiting at the mouth.  I just stick with the facts.  It's called commentary.  It's called critique.  The proper response on B's part would be to rebut with documentation to back up his position and explain in an articulate fashion why he's right and I'm wrong.  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FhaRakN8LpI&feature=plcp


http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html

7-25-2012 PM

WOW!  I just listened to B's rebuttal of my last two posts.  I must have really struck a nerve.  Let me just say that this is nothing personal.  It's commentary.  It's a critique.  If you're going to do several videos a week telling people about the dinar then you need to be prepared for that.  I was never a member at IIF or Dinar Daddy and I was never banned because of Breitling or Roger so there's no personal vendetta at all here.  That's the first thing B got wrong.  In this video, anyway.  I'm not a Breitling hater.  I just hate to see people misled and misinformed because of what people like Breitling are doing. 


And B stated twice that I talk about how I have a ton of dinar "just in case".  I never said any such thing.  Read through my "Dinar Douchebags" blog and you'll see that I said I have some dinar but I sold over 95% of what I had once I realized what the true risk vs. reward was.  The amount of money I have tied up in dinar right now is probably less than 90% of investors.  I do feel that there's a good chance that the Iraqi parliament will vote down the "delete the zeros" project and allow for a substantial increase in the IQD over the next year or two, and by "substantial" I don't mean millions.  Maybe 25% a year.  Possibly more.  It's a bit of a gamble, but it's entertaining for me.  I've never seen anything quite like the dinar investment and I like having something at stake so I can be a part of however this plays out.  It's kind of like buying tickets to the Super Bowl.  By the time you pay air fare and lodging it might cost you a few grand and your team might lose, but you want to be a part of the experience.  (And no, I'm not saying I have a few grand invested.)


B says nobody listens to me and I don't have many readers.  He can see the numbers.  Well maybe he's looking at the numbers of this blog.  I get about 600 hits a day on Dinar Douchebags which isn't much compared to the pumpers' sites I know, but it's probably more than any other anti-dinar pumper site.  I'd rather have 600 hits a day telling people the truth than 6000 hits a day feeding them BS so that I can sell them a bunch of crap.  I sleep much better this way. 


The reason I started this blog is I didn't want to bore people with Breitling's nonsense.  My readers don't listen to B and don't want to constantly hear what he's saying so out of respect for them I created a site just to log what he was saying along with my responses.  The fact that this blog doesn't get much traffic says more about B than it does about me, I'm afraid.  But in time I think people will catch on and start to do some research on B and this site will have plenty to offer.   


Breitling refers to my post "The Breitling Catalog" as "The Breitling Report".  He's reading here so I assume that he intentionally misstated the name so as to keep people from finding it in a keyword search.  I don't really care, but I do find this amusing.  I mean anybody who knows how to do keyword searches can find the blog just by taking a few phrases out of what he reads and typing that into Google.  Anyway, he says his rebuttal to that post totally burned me and probably drove me "vomiting at the mouth" nuts.  Interesting isn't it that the profanity and the namecalling don't come from this end, but somehow I'm the unstable one?


Next, Breitling claims that he never expected it to RV in 2010 or 2011.  (2:18)  Let's review what he said and you can be the judge.


On Nov. 29, 2010 B said:

Breitling: LOOK IT IS REALLY ON THE TABLE FOR THIS TO END THIS YEAR

Breitling: THEY ARE PRIMED

Breitling: WE SHOULD HAVE BEEN CASHED IN BY NOW

Breitling: ACCORDING TO MY BEST SOURCES

Breitling: THEY ARE IN SHOCK HOW IRAQ CAN MESS THINGS UP


http://exchangetidbits.com/archives/2010/11/breitling-chat-ddc-112910




And then:


6-1-2011 Guru Breitling JUNE 1ST TO JUNE 30TH...99% sure... NEVER BEEN CLOSER AND YOU SHOULD BE HAPPY, BECAUSE THIS IS REAL....86 TO THE EURO I THINK THE EURO IS 1.34 RIGHT NOW...What's left to do to RV? SEATING OF SECURITY , LAW PASSED ON THE CURRENCY , DFI TRANSFERED TO THE NEW ACCOUNTS




http://www.dinarguru.com/dinar-guru-archive2.html


I would say that "99% sure" qualifies as "expecting it".  No, he didn't predict anything, and I didn't say that he did. But he was clearly expecting it and that's what I said in my last post.  Where did I lie?  The point that I was making is that B says now that it's not a get rich quick scheme, but he was saying $.86 to $1.34 in June 2011.  How is that anything other than getting rich quick for somebody with one or two million dinar?


B then questions my claim that Roger Dorman said the average dinar investor holds about 1.2 million dinar.  Well here's the quote and the link, B.


yahoogle: happy belated b-day! I’m not sure if we are to questions yet. But here’s mine. I wonder if you have an estimate in mind as to how many American’s currently have IQD’s?
DinarDaddy: I know for a fact there are over 3 million Americans who hold Dinar right now… may be closer to 3.5 Million
yahoogle: Also, I wonder how much Dinar on Average these American’s have? And I wonder what type of consequences might be in store for us as a nation given such an immediate influx of wealth to so many people?
DinarDaddy: I’m not sure, but the number I heard sometime ago was around 1.2 million average


http://exchangetidbits.com/archives/2011/06/dinar-daddy-chat-ddc-6211/




B then tries to twist it around to say that I said Roger was predicting a $1 RV.  I didn't say anything about Roger's rate.  I simply mentioned his estimate of how much dinar the average investor holds and based my calcuation on that using Breitling's $1 RV figure. 


B then takes issue with my statement that many people bought dinar based on what he said, suggesting that I said that he told them to buy dinar.  No, I didn't say that he told them to.  I said based on what he said.  For example, Breitling has said things like "the more you buy the less the risk" and "buy more dinar".  (Come to think of it I guess he did tell them to.)  He said repeatedly "while you wait, accumulate."  He even offered the Breitling Insurance deal where you could get a $10 discount and a 500 dinar note with any 250,000 dinar purchase from The Treasury Vault.   This is all documented in The Breitling Catalog (not The Breitling Report ;-).  Then there are the numerous emails he has read where people tell him that they're following his strategy of buying lower denoms.   


B then disputes my claim that he hasn't offered any documentation to prove that Iraq is reducing their money supply.  He says that he has mentioned reports.  That's not documentation.  Documentation requires a document.  Let's see the document.  Give us a link or two, guy.  Give us something official to read that will substantiate what you're saying.  I try to link to back up just about everything I say.  Why can't you?  You have a blog.  Use it to prove what you say.  I'm a reasonable man.  If I read something from the CBI that says "we've reduced our money supply" I'll give it full consideration.  But please don't give us a link to that story about notes.  I'm talking about totals.  Money supply figures.  As I've pointed out before you can reduce the number of notes and still have more money, like when you get change at the store.  You hand the cashier a twenty and she hands you two fives and four ones.  She now has fewer notes but more money in her register, doesn't she?


B then disputes that they have 70 trillion dinar.  Here his argument is not with me.  It's with the CBI. 

Actually it's a bit more than 70 trillion, but the reserves are a bit more than $60 billion so it evens out.  Yeah, they're going to reduce the money supply if they redenominate.  But for now it seems that they're content to just print more money. 


B then disputes my claim that their money supply figures would need to be off by more than 99% to justify an RV to $.86.  Okay, let's do the math.  They're backing their currency 100% with their foreign reserves which total about $60 billion.  With the M2 at 70 trillion that comes to about $.00086 per dinar.  Now if you take that same $60 billion and divide it by 70 billion you would get $.86, right?  So 70 billion dinar is the M2 that they would need to justify an RV to $.86. 


Okay, now subtract 70 billion from 70 trillion and you get 69.93 trillion.  That's how much they would need to be off.  Now divide 69.93 by 70 and you get .999 or 99.9%, which I believe is more than 99%. 


B then disputes my claims that Turkey's inflation had bottomed out around 8% before they lopped, and that they had over 8% GDP growth at the time.  He doesn't like my documentation.  Okay.  Try these.  (Turkey lopped Jan. 1, 2005)


http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&idim=country:TUR&dl=en&hl=en&q=turkey+gdp+chart#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=region&idim=country:TUR&ifdim=region&tstart=932965200000&tend=1311656400000&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false


http://www.euroekonom.com/graphs-data.php?type=gdp-growth-turkey


http://www.tradingeconomics.com/turkey/inflation-cpi


http://www.aboutinflation.com/inflation-rate-historical/turkey-inflation-rate-historical-chart




B then claims that the Fed bought trillions of dinar, but alas .... no documentation. 


B says that I cited one bogus story about the new 50 dinar note to support my view.  Not at all.  I was commenting on his response to a listener when he raised the issue of the new 50, and rather than say the story was bogus B theorized that maybe they just don't like the way it looks.  I agree that story was contradicted by a following article and I even stated then when I wrote about it in The New 50 Dinar Note.  But B was the one saying that they would have a new 50 note yesterday, not me.  I was just commenting on his explanation for why they might issue a new 50. 


He then comments on my statement that no revaluation in history has required the use of new currency.  To my surprise he didn't dispute that, so in effect he's acknowledging that what he expects to occur here is unprecedented.  I'm impressed. 


B says he's not making this stuff up, he's just telling people what the CBI is saying.  That's my point.  The CBI isn't saying what B says they're saying.  They're saying they're going to do what Turkey did.  They're saying they're going to redenominate.  They're saying they're going to delete three zeros from their currency and reduce the money supply to 1/1000 of its current volume and increase the value to 1000 times the current value.  All of this describes a lop. 


B says that 100 Iraqis dying in a bombing is irrelevant, and it has no negative significance to the investment.  Au contraire.  Political conditions and stability are always considerations when it comes to a currency's value.  I'm not saying it's the most important factor but it's certainly a factor.  If you were a businessman considering doing business in Iraq would the carnage of 100 bodies make you more or less likely to live and work there?  If fewer people want to do business because of the instability and lack of security that will affect their economic growth, especially in the non-oil business sectors.  How could anybody consider that irrelevant?


The last 8 minutes of his rebuttal are incomprehensible for me unfortunately, but I think he's saying that I should get out of this investment.  That's my take on it anyway.  If you can glean more from it than I did then I tip my hat to you.  And now if you'll excuse me, I'm due for my shock therapy treatment.  Vomiting at the mouth again, you see.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SAZKJ88o7ao&feature=plcp


http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html

7-25-2012 AM

B says the dinar isn't a "Get Rich Quick" scheme.  Well as I documented in "The Breitling Catalog" B expected the RV in late 2010, and he expected it again in June 2011, and he consistently says that Iraq will RV to around $1.  If the average investor holds 1.2 million dinar as B's buddy Roger Dorman stated that means they would receive close to $800,000 after taxes.  I think most people would consider themselves rich if they could walk away with that kind of coin.  B has also stated in the past that the dinar is like holding a winning lottery ticket except that you don't know when you'll be able to cash it in.  How does that not qualify as "Get Rich Quick"?  Many people bought dinar based on what he said, but now he has changed his tune with no apologies for his past hype.


After making a pitch for The Treasury Vault (which is owned by his buddies Roger Dorman and wife Angela) B says that Iraq is different from other countries that lopped because

1. Their rate isn't correct and Brazil and Turkey had a correct rate and money supply.  B has yet to offer any documentation to prove his assertion that Iraq's money supply figures are wrong.  As I've pointed out before, Iraq is backing their currency 100% with their foreign currency reserves.  If you take the amount in their reserves (about $60 billion) and divide it by the amount in their reported M2 money supply (about 70 trillion dinar) you'll arrive at a figure near the current valuation ($.00086)  In fact Iraq has adjusted the rate several times over the past six years, which would suggest that the rate is about as correct as they can get it.  In order for Iraq to correct the rate to $.86 their figures would need to be off by more than 99%, and one would have to assume that the IMF is jeapordizing their credibility by knowingly allowing that.
2. Turkey had rampant inflation.  As I've pointed out many times Turkey's inflation rate had subsided and stabilized to around 8% which is about where Iraq's is now. 
3. Turkey's GDP was negative when they lopped.  Wrong again.  It was over 8%.
4. Brazil didn't reduce their money supply like Iraq is doing.  But Iraq isn't reducing the money supply, and their financial reports clearly show that.  In order to believe that they are you have to ignore a mountain of evidence to the contrary and trust gurus like Breitling who have yet to get anything right.
5. Nobody wanted Turkey's currency.  Nobody wants Iraq's either, except for gullible shmucks who believe guys like Breitling and think they're gonna be rich.  Even the Iraqi people prefer the US dollar.
6. Iraq is going to follow the examples of India and Canada who revalued their undervalued currencies.  India and Canada's revaluations were adjustments of less than 30% and they didn't need to issue new currency when they did that.  If Iraq takes the dinar's value up to 86 cents that would be a 100,000% increase.  If they follow India and Canada's examples they will RV to a little over 1/10 of a penny, or about $.0011.  That would barely be enough to cover the cost of purchasing dinar, but at least it's believable.     

I've pointed out before that there have been articles reporting that Iraq is coming out with a new 50 dinar note worth 50,000 dinar at the current rate, which would suggest a lop since they already have a 50.  Well B says maybe they don't like the way the 50 looks.  Nice try guy, but you gurus have been telling people for two years that the statements about removing three zeros are referring to removing the notes with three zeros from circulation, and that the new denominations of 1,5, 10 ... etc will be introduced along with the current 50, 250, and 500.  Well you can't have two 50 notes with two valuations in the same currency series.  If they just wanted to change the design they could change it without announcing that it would be worth 1000 times as much as the old 50.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGyma2sPoXc&feature=plcp


http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html

7-24-2012

B says that indeed Iraq is going to redenominate, but of course he defines that as printing new lower denoms in anticipation of a 100,000% revaluation where they won't need the 000 notes any more.  No revaluation in history has required the printing of new currency, so if B is right this will be unprecedented and will deviate from the normal process of removing zeros from the exchange rate which has always been done by replacing one currency series with a new one at a higher value and lower supply.  


B says he hasn't heard anything negative in this investment.  Selective hearing, for sure.  Just a couple of days ago 100 people died in a bombing in Iraq.  But even if all of the bombings stopped and everybody in Iraq decided to hold hands and sing Kumbaya you still have to deal with the hundreds of articles and statements declaring the CBI's intent to delete the zeros which means redenomination (lop) which would mean a loss of profit for the vast amount of dinar speculators.  (I know some of you are tired of me saying that over and over but I have new readers all the time who don't know this so please bear with me.  I'm trying to overcome years of pumper BS here. )


B explains again his reasoning behind his "dirty float" theory.


They came out with 15 trillion at about today's rate.  Then they came out with another 15 trillion which should have divided that value in half because there's more money, and more money dilutes the value of the wealth that represents that currency.  So it should have went from 4 cents to 2 cents.  It did not.  Then they talked about how they were reducing the money supply, and did it change the numbers?  No it did not.  So that's what they mean by a dirty float.   (24 min. in)


This makes zero sense.  If they came out with 15 trillion at today's rate the value would have been less than a tenth of a penny, so how could it go from 4 cents to 2 cents when they doubled the supply?  If it was at today's rate and the supply doubled the argument should be that it should have gone from $.00086 to $.00043, not from 4 cents to 2 cents.  The fact is Iraq can print more money without adjusting the exchange rate as long as the foreign currency reserves they are backing their currency with is also growing, which it is.  There's no bogus or "artificial" rate here.  Yes, it's a dirty float, but that doesn't mean what B thinks it means. 


"Dirty float" is just another term for "managed float" as opposed to a free floating currency which they can't do with the dinar as long as their country is as unstable as it is now.  Think about it.  If they had a free floating currency the value would tank every time a bomb goes off, and every time something positive happens it would shoot back up, making the valuation too unstable.  Shabibi stated when he was in Washington last year that they want a stable exchange rate.  (All the more reason to reject the notion of a 100,000% RV to 86 cents.)  They won't get that without a managed float.     


As for them telling us they were reducing the money supply, the CBI has never said that they are now reducing the money supply.  In fact the figures from the CBI website indicate the exact opposite.  What the CBI has said is that their plan is to reduce the money supply when they redenominate which will take the money supply from 30 trillion to 30 billion dinar.    


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKzb18gARGo&feature=plcp


http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html

7-13-2012

A listener asks B if the newly printed dinar will replace all denoms or only the ones with three zeros.  He says he doesn't know.  Well, I know.  If they do what they're saying they're going to do they'll issue a new currency in lower denominations that will replace the IQD - ALL OF IT!!!  Every denomintion will be demonetized at the same time and the replacement dinar worth a thousand times more will be the only Iraqi currency recognized.  The idea that they'll only demonetize some denominations and leave others is nonsense.  That's not how a redenomination works.


Another listener asks if they're going to RV at the same time that they introduce the new currency, presumably Jan. 1 2013.  The listener states his assumption that the RV is getting closer because the money supply in Iraq is decreasing.  As I've pointed out numerous times this is a misconception based on bad information from gurus like Breitling.  The money supply is in fact growing in Iraq as the foreign currency reserves grow.  This enables them to maintain a stable exchange rate which is best for their economy right now.


B then goes on to say that they're not going to tell the Iraqi people everything that they're doing.  He cites Brazil as an example of that.  It so happens that Brazil redenominated several times, and not once did they issue new lower denominations, pull the large denominations out of circulation, and revalue their currency like B is telling us Iraq will do.  Brazil lopped three zeros off of their exchange rate and issued a new currency in 1986, 1989, and 1993 just as Iraq is saying that they will do.  Then in 1994 they redenominated again at 2750:1 (so it wasn't actually a lop because the math was trickier).  Nobody got rich off of those redenominations unless there was some douchebag brasileiro selling cruzeiros to gullible investors saying it was gonna go up 2750 times in value.


B says he can get in trouble by recommending a particular stock.  The reason for this is he's not a licensed investment advisor, which means he isn't qualified to give investment advice.  Bearing that in mind (and given his history of bad intel and misinformation), you have to wonder why people listen to this guy?


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npah7qbVDVc&list=UUFsclL8v97dpvyD5GmvGLFg&index=2&feature=plcp


http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html

7-17-2012

B says that people who say "delete the zeros" means "lop" don't know what the hell they're talking about.  So I guess Ali Agha from Dinar Trade doesn't know what the hell he's talking about, because he says it means lop.  I guess every other country that has lopped after saying they were going to cut the zeros, lop off some zeros, remove the zeros .... etc. didn't know what the hell they were talking about either.


B says that the US Treasury and Federal Reserve both have dinar. He's seen the articles that state that but unfortunately doesn't have them handy. I've been observing B for over nine months now and the only thing I recall seeing him provide a link for (other than crap he was pumping) was the SIGIR Report which didn't even say what he claimed it said. I certainly wouldn't hold my breath waiting to see any links to documentation of these claims.  However, I decided to look through the threads at IIF to see if I could find what he was referring to and I found this thread.  It's addressing this article from the NY Times in 2008.


On page 2 it says "Because the new Iraqi dinar was so popular, the central bank bought billions of U.S. dollars to keep it from appreciating too much. As a result, billions in cash accumulated in the vaults of the central bank." 


The overnight millionaire crowd of course interprets this to mean that Iraq bought billions of USD with the new Iraqi dinar, which means we must have trillions of IQD in our treasury.  However, if you read the whole story you'll see that on page 1 it says "In the first stage, the United States would pay Iraqi government employees and pensioners in U.S. dollars. These were obtained from Saddam's accounts in American banks, which were frozen after he attacked Kuwait in 1990 and amounted to about $1.7 billion. The second stage was to print a new Iraqi currency for which Iraqis could exchange their old dinars." 


So it looks like what happened is the US poured $1.7 billion USD into the Iraqi economy and later bought them back from the Iraqi people with the newly issued IQD.  Nowhere does it say that Iraq bought those USD from the US.  


B says he keeps getting email from people saying they don't know how much longer they can hold on.  He says they should have never counted on the RV by any certain date.  He says that this is a shoebox investment, as in "put your dinars in a shoebox and forget about them".  "It's fun to watch, but you need to be focusing on other stuff or you'll get hurt", he says.  That's quite different from what he was saying a year or two ago ... things like "it's on the table to RV by the end of this year (2010)" and "99% sure of an RV by the end of June (2011)".  Maybe those people wouldn't have bought dinar in the first place if B hadn't said it's a sure thing and led them to think it would happen by now.  I documented this in The Breitling Catalog. 


B says that everything on the ISX is undervalued because those stocks are priced in IQD and the currency is undervalued.  Well if the stocks are undervalued then everything in Iraq with a dinar price tag on it is undervalued.  Might as well buy up everything on every shelf because it's sure to go up in value after the RV.  After awhile this starts to sound a bit silly, doesn't it?


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hp4lbWEa8Xo&feature=plcp


http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html

7-12-2012

B says if the numbers don't work Iraq's not gonna RV.  This seems like a complete contradiction from what he's said in the past about the dinar being undervalued, the US set up this whole RV scenario and is in charge of it, they're on a dirty dirty float .... etc.

B says Condi Rice said the war in Iraq would be vindicated, suggesting that she knew about the plan to RV.  If you'll watch this video you'll hear some of her comments about the Bush administration's geopolitical strategy for the Gulf region, and there's nothing in it about the Iraqi dinar or the war paying for itself. 

Condoleezza Rice: Perspectives on Peace and War from Sixth and I Historic Synagogue and Sixth and I Historic Synagogue on FORA.tv

http://fora.tv/2009/05/03/Condoleezza_Rice_Perspectives_on_Peace_and_War

B then goes on to say that Allawi screwed everything up (for the RV) by not prosecuting a successful counterinsurgency effort, although he can't seem to remember the word "insurgency".   

B says they're trying to get people to give up their dinar for the new dinar, and they have to give them some incentive.  Well here's the incentive, B.  Its called demonetization.  If you don't turn them in by a certain date you'll lose out because they'll be worthless.  They don't have to RV to motivate people to turn in their dinar.  They simply do what every other country that redenominated did - demonetize the old currency.

B says they're trying to get rid of the larger notes first.  I challenge anybody to produce a quote from anybody at the CBI where they have stated this.  I'm sure B thinks that's what they mean by deleting the three zeros but as I've pointed out many times that's talking about the exchange rate when they lop.  You can't delete paper currency.  You can only delete letters and numbers.  If they redenominate they will get rid of all denominations at the same time.

B repeats his lower denom insurance theory for all of the gullible ignorami who cling to his every word.

B talks about people who understand more about economics than he does. I assume he's talking about the general population.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wDKKCepJwo&feature=plcp

7-11-2012

B says that Iraq is still under the control of the IMF and won't be allowed to screw the international community. Interesting how he thinks the IMF is watching them like a hawk regarding the lop but is apparently looking the other way while they overstate their money supply by upwards of 99% in preparation of a 100,000% increase in value.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3haS3XZwTM&feature=plcp


B then reads an email quoting something that Med said about Iraq's announcement that they will remove three zeros from the nominal value of the dinar. 


A REVALUE IS THE SAME AS A VALUATION OR THE SAME IN THIS CASE AS REMOVING THE ZERO'S ANY AMOUNT FROM THE NOMINAL VALUE. WHAT IS THE NOMINAL VALUE? THE NOMINAL VALUE IS WHAT IS USED WHEN COMPARING ANY CURRENCY AGAINST THE USD. RIGHT NOW THE DINAR IS 1166 BUT THE NOMINAL VALUE IS .00086 AND SINCE CBI STATED THEY ARE REMOVING THE ZERO FROM THE NOMINAL VALUE OR THE THOUSANDTH, THIS IS WHERE THIS THOUSAND TO ONE KEEPS POPPING UP, THE DINAR IS RECOGNIZED IN THE THOUSANDTH THE USD IS NOT. BY REMOVING THE 3 ZERO'S OR THE THOUSANDTH POSITIONS THEY ARE NOW BROUGHT IN LINE WITH THE NOMINAL VALUE OF THE USD. NOW WHAT IS THE CONVERTED VALUE AFTER THE REMOVAL OF THE ZERO'S? 1.17 DINARS = 1 USDOLLAR OR .86 CENTS. FORGET THE WORDS RV.


B says he agrees with Med's interpretation that essentially the CBI is announcing that they're going to increase the value 100,000% or a thousand times its current value.  He says this is why he and Med hung out so long.  Maybe this is where B's convoluted understanding of redenomination comes from?


Two different times in today's video B states that we're at the mercy of the CBI.  Further evidence of backpedaling?


B concludes by talking about how nobody can stop you from succeeding in life but you.  He then says that the partisan rhetoric from both parties keeps them from accomplishing much of anything.  I'm going to take a brief pause from criticizing B and say that I wholeheartedly agree with him here.   A pox on both their houses. 


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3haS3XZwTM&feature=plcp

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html

7-9-2012

Breitling keeps talking about a dirty float, and how they need to be on a managed float.  Like DaveD has said, a dirty float and a managed float are the same thing.

From Investopedia:

Definition of 'Dirty Float'

A system of floating exchange rates in which the government or the country's central bank occasionally intervenes to change the direction of the value of the country's currency. In most instances, the intervention aspect of a dirty float system is meant to act as a buffer against an external economic shock before its effects become truly disruptive to the domestic economy. Also known as a "managed float".   

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dirtyfloat.asp#ixzz207QiKMPZ

Breitling says Iraq can't let the cat out of the bag (that they're going to RV) "even though they have because of guys like me".  I think it's much more likely that there's no cat and no bag and no big RV forthcoming, and that B is either terribly confused or lying about what the CBI is saying.

A listener tells B that the dinar's value is stagnant and the money supply is bloated which would indicate a drop in the GDP.  Actually an increase in the money supply and a stable exchange rate would mean they are expanding their monetary base which would be consistent with a growth in the GDP.  A decrease in the money supply accompanied by a stable exchange rate or a stable money supply with a decrease in the exchange rate would mean a drop in the GDP.  This person is as confused as B is.

Breitling then discusses Turkey's lop again, saying that Turkey's inflation was a huge problem (not when they lopped ... it was right about where Iraq's inflation rate is now) and says that Turkey's numbers were correct but Iraq's aren't.  B, Iraq's money supply numbers would have to be off by over 90% to justify an RV of the magnitude that you guys are talking about.  B also says that the Turkish lira revalued nine times.  I don't see any revaluation of the lira.  There was a redenomination (incorrectly referred to as a revaluation) that occurred in 2005 when they dropped six zeros from the exchange rate, but no revaluations according to what I've read.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_lira

B says that Kuwait got their printing plates back after Saddam was removed and then BOOM! the value came back. Actually the Kuwaiti dinar printed after Desert Storm was a different series from the Kuwaiti dinar prior to Desert Storm. Does this guy ever do any research before he opens his mouth? B says that when Iraq talks about printing new 50 notes they're just talking about printing more of the current 50s only with a new design.  Well ..... not exactly.  What they're talking about is replacing the current 50 notes worth less than a nickel ($.043) with a new 50 worth about $43 (50,000 of today's dinar).&

BAGHDAD, Nov. 24 (AKnews) – The Iraqi Central Bank (ICB) has confirmed it will issue a new bill with a value of 50,000 IQD ($43 USD) but marked as 50 dinars.

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/11/new-50-dinar-note.html

That's a lop Breitling.  End of story!

In B's second video of the day he basically just pumps his REIC gig this weekend and then starts talking about his philosophy of  self-reliance.  Nothing wrong with that philosophy but the point he raised to validate his view was nonsense.  He claims that India takes kids off the streets and teaches them to read and write and turns them into better computer programmers than our universities produce.  My God!  India's technology schools are highly competitive.  They don't take illiterate kids off the streets.

They have an entrance exam for their technology institutes and only about 1 in 50 are accepted.

They take the elite from their school system and turn them into great programmers, not illiterate kids off the street.  Where does B get this stuff?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oxy55TY9IMQ&feature=plcp

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zeQoyRmJAMw&feature=relmfu

7-7-2012

B says today's rate is a dirty float and Iraq needs to correct the rate. He says you can't go from 15 trillion to 30 trillion and not change the exchange rate. Actually you can, B, if your foreign currency reserves (which Iraq uses to back their currency) are also growing. For example, let's say Iraq's foreign currency reserves a few years ago were $25.8 billion and their M2 was 30 trillion. And let's say that they were backing their M2 with their reserves at 100%. Okay, let's divide $25.8 billion by 30 trillion. That comes to about $.00086. Now let's say that a couple of years later their reserves grow to about $43 billion and their M2 is at 50 trillion. Divide $43 by 50 trillion and again you arrive at about $.00086. Now lets say that the foreign reserves today are at about $60 billion and the M2 is at about 70 trillion. Guess what? That comes to about $.000857 which is today's IQD value. You see, Iraq has been printing more dinar and increasing their money supply as their foreign currency reserves grow, which enables them to stabilize the exchange rate. Why would they want a stable currency rate instead of one that is rapidly increasing? Because contrary to what the dinar gurus are telling us, nations don't like to see their currency value increase. It tends to slow down the economy. Iraq did it a few years ago because they had to in order to get inflation under control, but now that it's under 10% they don't want to. So they print more money in order to maintain equilibrium.


B goes on to say once again that Iraq is reducing the money supply. No they're not. The CBI financials clearly show that they're not. And if you believe that the IMF is looking the other way while Iraq shows the world a money supply figure that is off by more than 90% (which would be the case if Iraq wanted to RV to $.86) you're nuts.  It might be off by a few % but nothing drastic enough to RV to an amount that makes millionaires out of dinar investors.    


B then rants "if you don't believe they're reducing the money supply then you need to get out of this investment!".  On that much we agree. 


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uFvMRlKl6NY&feature=plcp

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html

7-5-2012

Unbelievable news coming out confirming they are going to raise value of currency...Every time Shabibi mentioned this...Maliki would ask for a study...now the GOI is on board...this is going to happen no matter what...I don't know exactly how this is going to play out or what the rate will be...I have not seen anything negative yet...Kick back and relax!


http://theiraqidinar.com/2012/07/05/dinar-guru-updates-dinar-guru-7512/


First of all Shabibi has never said he's going to "revalue" the IQD.  When he talks about raising the value it's always in conjunction with deleting the zeros and issuing new currency.  In other words, a lop.  A lop would raise the value from $.00086 (IQD's value) to $.86 (new currency's value) and decrease the amount of dinar in circulation from 30 trillion to 30 billion.  NO NET CHANGE IN THE MONETARY BASE, BREITLING!!!  If the GOI is now on board with Shabibi that means they're on board with the redenomination project that Shabibi has been talking about for a couple of years now. 




Nothing negative?  How about this?




Baghdad (CNN) -- A man wearing an explosive vest blew himself up Thursday inside a barber shop in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul, killing at least five others along with him and wounding 20, police said.

The bombing occurred in al-Dawasa commercial area in central Mosul, which is located in the Nineveh province about 285 miles (380 kilometers) north of Baghdad.

In the Iraqi capital, a roadside bomb also exploded and wounded five people Thursday.

The violence came one day after 11 people were killed in attacks across the country, and two days after 36 people were killed.

In June, at least 240 people were killed in militant attacks in Iraq, according to CNN estimates.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/05/world/meast/iraq-violence/index.html




Like it or not Iraq is still a very unstable country, and instability dosn't translate into a higher currency value.  Gurus like to dismiss these bombings as irrelevant to the "impending revaluation of the Iraqi dinar" but anybody who knows anything about currency valuation knows otherwise.  Iraq can lop in the midst of this turmoil with no problem, but any increases in the net value of their currency are going to be hard to come by. 

7-4-2012

B says he's going to make a public appearance for the MLM real estate group REIC in Anaheim, California on July 13 & 14.  Maybe some of you will be able to make it and ask him to explain again how Iraq is going to reduce the money supply to 30 billion dinar without a lop.  Or maybe how holding lower denoms protects you against a lop.  LOL!!!


A reader reports his joy over getting 6% interest in his Warka account.  Nothing is said about Warka being insolvent.  B says he's making money all over the place in Iraq.  Then he says that Iraq is trading their currency internationally.  He qualifies that by saying they're trading it with banks outside of Iraq.  So they transfer currency to a few banks outside their borders and they're "trading internationally"?  Oy Vey!


Then he rants about the "In Country Revaluation" theory blaming it on loppers.  I haven't heard any loppers talking about an in country revaluation.  I've heard them say that Iraq is going to redenominate and it might be a tad problematic exchanging IQD for USD or the new dinar when that happens, but a redenomination is not the same as a revaluation. 


Other than that he just basically babbles about how much he knows about investing and talks about how Iraq's gonna add value to their curency and make lots of money for his followers then he pumps his new website.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q_VC0q53lxI&feature=plcp