And B stated twice that I talk about how I have a ton of dinar "just in case". I never said any such thing. Read through my "Dinar Douchebags" blog and you'll see that I said I have some dinar but I sold over 95% of what I had once I realized what the true risk vs. reward was. The amount of money I have tied up in dinar right now is probably less than 90% of investors. I do feel that there's a good chance that the Iraqi parliament will vote down the "delete the zeros" project and allow for a substantial increase in the IQD over the next year or two, and by "substantial" I don't mean millions. Maybe 25% a year. Possibly more. It's a bit of a gamble, but it's entertaining for me. I've never seen anything quite like the dinar investment and I like having something at stake so I can be a part of however this plays out. It's kind of like buying tickets to the Super Bowl. By the time you pay air fare and lodging it might cost you a few grand and your team might lose, but you want to be a part of the experience. (And no, I'm not saying I have a few grand invested.)
B says nobody listens to me and I don't have many readers. He can see the numbers. Well maybe he's looking at the numbers of this blog. I get about 600 hits a day on Dinar Douchebags which isn't much compared to the pumpers' sites I know, but it's probably more than any other anti-dinar pumper site. I'd rather have 600 hits a day telling people the truth than 6000 hits a day feeding them BS so that I can sell them a bunch of crap. I sleep much better this way.
The reason I started this blog is I didn't want to bore people with Breitling's nonsense. My readers don't listen to B and don't want to constantly hear what he's saying so out of respect for them I created a site just to log what he was saying along with my responses. The fact that this blog doesn't get much traffic says more about B than it does about me, I'm afraid. But in time I think people will catch on and start to do some research on B and this site will have plenty to offer.
Breitling refers to my post "The Breitling Catalog" as "The Breitling Report". He's reading here so I assume that he intentionally misstated the name so as to keep people from finding it in a keyword search. I don't really care, but I do find this amusing. I mean anybody who knows how to do keyword searches can find the blog just by taking a few phrases out of what he reads and typing that into Google. Anyway, he says his rebuttal to that post totally burned me and probably drove me "vomiting at the mouth" nuts. Interesting isn't it that the profanity and the namecalling don't come from this end, but somehow I'm the unstable one?
Next, Breitling claims that he never expected it to RV in 2010 or 2011. (2:18) Let's review what he said and you can be the judge.
On Nov. 29, 2010 B said:
Breitling: LOOK IT IS REALLY ON THE TABLE FOR THIS TO END THIS YEAR
Breitling: THEY ARE PRIMED
Breitling: WE SHOULD HAVE BEEN CASHED IN BY NOW
Breitling: ACCORDING TO MY BEST SOURCES
Breitling: THEY ARE IN SHOCK HOW IRAQ CAN MESS THINGS UPhttp://exchangetidbits.com/archives/2010/11/breitling-chat-ddc-112910
And then:
6-1-2011 Guru Breitling JUNE 1ST TO JUNE 30TH...99% sure... NEVER BEEN CLOSER AND YOU SHOULD BE HAPPY, BECAUSE THIS IS REAL....86 TO THE EURO I THINK THE EURO IS 1.34 RIGHT NOW...What's left to do to RV? SEATING OF SECURITY , LAW PASSED ON THE CURRENCY , DFI TRANSFERED TO THE NEW ACCOUNTS
http://www.dinarguru.com/dinar-guru-archive2.html
I would say that "99% sure" qualifies as "expecting it". No, he didn't predict anything, and I didn't say that he did. But he was clearly expecting it and that's what I said in my last post. Where did I lie? The point that I was making is that B says now that it's not a get rich quick scheme, but he was saying $.86 to $1.34 in June 2011. How is that anything other than getting rich quick for somebody with one or two million dinar?
B then questions my claim that Roger Dorman said the average dinar investor holds about 1.2 million dinar. Well here's the quote and the link, B.
yahoogle: happy belated b-day! I’m not sure if we are to questions yet. But here’s mine. I wonder if you have an estimate in mind as to how many American’s currently have IQD’s?
DinarDaddy: I know for a fact there are over 3 million Americans who hold Dinar right now… may be closer to 3.5 Million
yahoogle: Also, I wonder how much Dinar on Average these American’s have? And I wonder what type of consequences might be in store for us as a nation given such an immediate influx of wealth to so many people?
DinarDaddy: I’m not sure, but the number I heard sometime ago was around 1.2 million average
http://exchangetidbits.com/archives/2011/06/dinar-daddy-chat-ddc-6211/
B then tries to twist it around to say that I said Roger was predicting a $1 RV. I didn't say anything about Roger's rate. I simply mentioned his estimate of how much dinar the average investor holds and based my calcuation on that using Breitling's $1 RV figure.
B then takes issue with my statement that many people bought dinar based on what he said, suggesting that I said that he told them to buy dinar. No, I didn't say that he told them to. I said based on what he said. For example, Breitling has said things like "the more you buy the less the risk" and "buy more dinar". (Come to think of it I guess he did tell them to.) He said repeatedly "while you wait, accumulate." He even offered the Breitling Insurance deal where you could get a $10 discount and a 500 dinar note with any 250,000 dinar purchase from The Treasury Vault. This is all documented in The Breitling Catalog (not The Breitling Report ;-). Then there are the numerous emails he has read where people tell him that they're following his strategy of buying lower denoms.
B then disputes my claim that he hasn't offered any documentation to prove that Iraq is reducing their money supply. He says that he has mentioned reports. That's not documentation. Documentation requires a document. Let's see the document. Give us a link or two, guy. Give us something official to read that will substantiate what you're saying. I try to link to back up just about everything I say. Why can't you? You have a blog. Use it to prove what you say. I'm a reasonable man. If I read something from the CBI that says "we've reduced our money supply" I'll give it full consideration. But please don't give us a link to that story about notes. I'm talking about totals. Money supply figures. As I've pointed out before you can reduce the number of notes and still have more money, like when you get change at the store. You hand the cashier a twenty and she hands you two fives and four ones. She now has fewer notes but more money in her register, doesn't she?
B then disputes that they have 70 trillion dinar. Here his argument is not with me. It's with the CBI.
Actually it's a bit more than 70 trillion, but the reserves are a bit more than $60 billion so it evens out. Yeah, they're going to reduce the money supply if they redenominate. But for now it seems that they're content to just print more money.
B then disputes my claim that their money supply figures would need to be off by more than 99% to justify an RV to $.86. Okay, let's do the math. They're backing their currency 100% with their foreign reserves which total about $60 billion. With the M2 at 70 trillion that comes to about $.00086 per dinar. Now if you take that same $60 billion and divide it by 70 billion you would get $.86, right? So 70 billion dinar is the M2 that they would need to justify an RV to $.86.
Okay, now subtract 70 billion from 70 trillion and you get 69.93 trillion. That's how much they would need to be off. Now divide 69.93 by 70 and you get .999 or 99.9%, which I believe is more than 99%.
B then disputes my claims that Turkey's inflation had bottomed out around 8% before they lopped, and that they had over 8% GDP growth at the time. He doesn't like my documentation. Okay. Try these. (Turkey lopped Jan. 1, 2005)
http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&idim=country:TUR&dl=en&hl=en&q=turkey+gdp+chart#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=region&idim=country:TUR&ifdim=region&tstart=932965200000&tend=1311656400000&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false
http://www.euroekonom.com/graphs-data.php?type=gdp-growth-turkey
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/turkey/inflation-cpi
http://www.aboutinflation.com/inflation-rate-historical/turkey-inflation-rate-historical-chart
B then claims that the Fed bought trillions of dinar, but alas .... no documentation.
B says that I cited one bogus story about the new 50 dinar note to support my view. Not at all. I was commenting on his response to a listener when he raised the issue of the new 50, and rather than say the story was bogus B theorized that maybe they just don't like the way it looks. I agree that story was contradicted by a following article and I even stated then when I wrote about it in The New 50 Dinar Note. But B was the one saying that they would have a new 50 note yesterday, not me. I was just commenting on his explanation for why they might issue a new 50.
He then comments on my statement that no revaluation in history has required the use of new currency. To my surprise he didn't dispute that, so in effect he's acknowledging that what he expects to occur here is unprecedented. I'm impressed.
B says he's not making this stuff up, he's just telling people what the CBI is saying. That's my point. The CBI isn't saying what B says they're saying. They're saying they're going to do what Turkey did. They're saying they're going to redenominate. They're saying they're going to delete three zeros from their currency and reduce the money supply to 1/1000 of its current volume and increase the value to 1000 times the current value. All of this describes a lop.
B says that 100 Iraqis dying in a bombing is irrelevant, and it has no negative significance to the investment. Au contraire. Political conditions and stability are always considerations when it comes to a currency's value. I'm not saying it's the most important factor but it's certainly a factor. If you were a businessman considering doing business in Iraq would the carnage of 100 bodies make you more or less likely to live and work there? If fewer people want to do business because of the instability and lack of security that will affect their economic growth, especially in the non-oil business sectors. How could anybody consider that irrelevant?
The last 8 minutes of his rebuttal are incomprehensible for me unfortunately, but I think he's saying that I should get out of this investment. That's my take on it anyway. If you can glean more from it than I did then I tip my hat to you. And now if you'll excuse me, I'm due for my shock therapy treatment. Vomiting at the mouth again, you see.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SAZKJ88o7ao&feature=plcp
http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html
http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html
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