B starts off talking about how he's the only guy out there talking about economic issues and how things really work. I assume he means how buying lower denominations or electronic currency protects you from a lop, or that stock is currency (show me that in an economics textbook), or how Iraq can reduce its money supply enough to revalue to $1 by "reverse engineering" without lopping. (All of these claims were documented in "The Breitling Catalog".)
B cites the MOP Feasibility Study that addresses the issue of setting the value of the dinar at $1.13 instead of $3.20. He says that Iraq's not ready for a $3.20 currency and they have to "grow into that jacket". Okay, let's think this through. The largest revaluation in history was China at a little over 30%. If Iraq revalues to $1.13 that would represent an increase of over 100,000%. Can you see how ridiculous that is? Okay, good. Now, if they revalue to $3.20 that would represent an increase of over 300,000%. Even more ridiculous, right? So are we to conlcude then that this study is recommending an absurd increase of 100,000% over an even more absurd increase of 300,000%? Or do we maybe factor in the reduction in money supply produced by the "Delete The Zeros" project which means that the current dinar will be replaced by a more valuable dinar with a proportionate reduction in the money supply? Bear in mind that the report states the official valuation of the dinar as $3.208, not $.000857, so they're not talking about an RV from less than a tenth of a penny to $1.13. They're working off the old Saddam era valuation and contemplating whether or not it would be feasible to return to that in their monetary reform plan which includes a redenomination.
You see, if they remove three zeros from the nominal value the new value will be 86 cents. Now, would an increase from 86 cents to $3.20 be feasible post RD (lop)? This report says no, they would be better off closer to $1.13. So according to my understanding of this report you would have to exchange your IQD for the new dinar at a ratio of 1000:1 old for new, and then hope that it will appreciate from $.86 to $1.13 which would be about a 32% increase. After a deduction of the 20% markup that most incurred on their IQD purchase and the 20% likely markup on the exchange to the new dinar that would leave the investor at a loss of around 8%. Not good.
Now according to B's understanding of this report you would exchange your IQD for US dollars at a ratio of 1:1.13 IQD for USD which means your 1 million IQD would be worth $1.13 million USD minus exchange fees. (And who the hell cares about exchange fees if they just won the lottery by turning $1,000 into more than $1,000,000 right?)
At 17:45 in B says that when he first got into this investment they weren't talking about redenominating. No, they were talking about getting rid of three zeros and coming in at about a buck. (facepalm) That IS a redenomination!!!
B then wraps it up with yet another misrepresentation of my position. "This guy got caught telling everybody he has dinar". Caught? I have consistently stated for the past 11 months that I still own some, but that I sold off 95% (now over 98%) of it after doing my research last summer. "Okay, you might make 2 cents". I said in that first post "RV Reality Check" that the most Iraq could support is a penny or two, and that is only a remote possibility. If they reduce their money supply (which they aren't doing) and if their foreign currency reserves grow substantially (which seems to be the case) or if they go to another means of backing their currency (which they haven't, nor have they indicated any likelihood that they will) and if conditions vastly improve in Iraq (that's not the case either) ... under the most ideal of circumstances they couldn't support more than a penny or two, and even then I doubt that they would want to given their emphasis on stability. I have never predicted an RV to a penny. When I stated "a penny or two" in that first post that wasn't a guru prediction. That was an assessment of the absolute maximum conceivable potential for owning dinar as opposed to the predictions of $1-$4 that we're hearing from pumpers. Along with that assessment I included the very real possibility of losing 100% which B has never acknowledged. Even in this video he's telling people they better buy a "shitload more" of dinar if they only expect a 2 cent RV, without any mention of the risk. No, I have consistently stated that you're likely to make less than a 300% return if you make any profit at all. In fact I posted about this in "A No-Brainer" in April. B's blatant misrepresentation of my statements should tell you all you need to know about this guy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_tGE0zXwWY&feature=plcp
http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html
http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html
B refers to those guys who own dinar but tell everybody not to buy, and yet they run dinar ads on their site. If he's talking about me he's wrong. (Imagine that!) I have never told anybody not to buy dinar or that they should sell their dinar. I simply tell them the facts so that they can make an informed decision, free from they hype that comes from these gurus. As for running dinar ads, I only run Google AdSense. I have no control over what ads are displayed. I could certainly make more in ad revenue if I placed a dinar dealer ad on the site, but then I would be taking money from a dinar dealer and I wouldn't feel right about that.
B states that these loppers have "pretty much shut up". Well, not exactly. I admit I don't post about B every day, but then he's only got one of me to address and I've got a few dozen pumpers and scammers to keep track of. I do my best but it's hard to keep up sometimes.
B states that Maliki could cause the RV to be lower. I think he believes this because he's under the impression that Shabibi is talking about an RV instead of a lop. The only chance any dinar investor (myself included) has to make money from owning the IQD is if Shabibi's "delete the zeros" plan doesn't go forward. (At this point I'm betting my paltry sum of IQD that it won't.) So in that respect Maliki is the investor's best friend.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t45brOMEjOs&feature=plcp
http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html
http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html
B states that evil people are lying about Iraq having 75 trillion dinar printed. I wondered who he was referring to, so I did a search for 75 trillion iraqi dinar and couldn't find anything. I have to assume that he's referring to people who have actually read the financial statement on the CBI website and saw the M2 listing of over 70 trillion dinar. That's not all printed currency of course. It's a combination of cash and electronic currency. But it doesn't matter if it's paper or digital, it all has to be backed and it is being backed now by Iraq's foreign currency reserves.
http://www.cbi.iq/documents/key%20financial.xls
Line 79 says Currency Outside Banks and for June 2012 it shows 30 trillion 246 billion dinar. (These figures are done in billions per Line 47, so 30,000 billion is 30 trillion.) Then line 88 shows 40 trillion 535 billion dinar in deposits. If you add those two figures you get the M2 amount of 70 trillion 781 billion dinar in line 87. As I've pointed out several times if you divide the foreign currency reserves figure by the M2 figure you'll end up with something close to the current value of the dinar which is $.000857. (The FCR was at $60 billion and the M2 was at 70 trillion. The latest report on the FCR has it up to $67 billion so I expect a spike to 75-78 trillion in the M2 within the next month or two.)
I haven't heard anybody say that Iraq has printed 70 trillion dinar. This statement shows 30 trillion outside of banks so that would be the printed currency. The rest you would assume is mostly electronic although they've certainly got some cash in the banks as well. The point is their total money supply is 70 trillion dinar whether it's printed or electronic, and that's the reason they can't RV to $3, $2, $1, or even a penny.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ej4LC6RPjYA&feature=plcp
http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html
http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html
B repeats his triangulation "risk management" strategy. Invest in the dinar (risky and overstated potential), ISX (probably safer but still considerable risk), and Warka (essentially an insolvent institution). Gotta love it!
B talks about Iraq becoming the #2 oil producer in OPEC. While that's true, it's important to remember that the #1 oil producer is Saudi Arabia and their currency is valued at about 27 cents with a total money supply of about 1 trillion riyals and a GDP about five times that of Iraq's. And of course their country is more stable and their economy is more diversified than Iraq's. But let's just assume for the sake of argument that Iraq and SA are equally stable and diverse. Iraq is currently backing 70 trillion dinar in their M2 100% with their foreign currency reserves of about $60 billion. ($60 bl / 70 tl = $.000857 which is the current official value). Saudi's monetary base is about $270 billion. To have an equal monetary base with a valuation of $.86 Iraq would need to reduce their M2 money supply from 70 trillion to about 314 billion, a reduction of over 99%. And of course with Iraq's GDP being 20% of Saudi's the reduction would need to be even greater. So maybe you can see now why some of us question the RV math of people like B.
B talks about "these guys who say it's a scam every damn day". I assume I'm included in that group, although I have never referred to the dinar investment as a scam. I have called the idea that the dinar will increase in value 1000,000% a scam, but since I started blogging on the dinar I have consistently stated that the possibility exists to make a profit of 100-200%, but that you have to weigh that against the considerable risks involved. Once I became aware of the risks and realistic potential I reduced my position by over 98%.
B goes on to talk about these guys who backtracked and are inconsistent. I don't know if he's including me in that group but I'm going to assume that he is. The problem here is not inconsistency on my part. I would say it's poor reading comprehension on B's part. I have consistently said that progress is being made in Iraq, but that progress and economic growth don't automatically translate into an increase in the value of the dinar. I've consistently stated the true potential and true risks. I've consistently stated the possibility of a lop which is after all what "deleting the zeros" means. I have also consistently stated that the dinar's value could go up, although it can't RV to 86 cents or more like B is saying. Nothing has changed there either. I'd put my consistency up against B's any day. In the time I've been researching him he's gone from "it's a 100% sure thing" to "we don't know what they'll do". He's gone from "$.86 to the euro" to "it could come out at 6 cents". He's gone from "it's like owning a lottery ticket" to "If you're prepared to jump out of the window because you didn't make money off this investment and you're gonna throw a little fit and all that stuff, you should have never been in this investment in the first place."
B says about his critics "it's over ... it's just over". Puzzling why he keeps talking about us if that's the case?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p1BqAdfsf8M&feature=plcp
http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html
http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html
B says that the idea that Iraq will only raise the value of their currency when they redenominate is false. I agree, and I never claimed that they won't raise the value. They've raised it many times in the past and may very well raise it in the future. I'm hoping they do, in fact. But they won't raise it 1000 times its current value. It will likely be an increase of less than 10% and won't require the printing or distribution of any new currency. What I have said repeatedly is that when they say they are going to increase the value its always within the context of redenomination which won't produce any profit for investors. (8/12/12 NOTE! When I posted this I forgot that they have also talked about raising the value via the auctions. That doesn't change the official value, however. They just use the auctions to manipulate the money supply to bring the street value back up to around the official value from time to time. My point is still valid that they aren't referring to raising the official value which is what a revaluation is.) If they want to bump up the value a few % tomorrow they'll just do it. No fanfare. No announcements. Just change it like they did back in January. That's how revaluations work, folks. That's why you shouldn't listen to gurus.
B says that a 27% increase in the value of the dinar (as occurred from 2006-2009) is nothing. Actually, given the history of currencies and valuations a growth of 9% a year is huge. True, it's nothing compared to the 100,000% increase (from $.00086 to $.86) that B and other gurus are expecting, but a 100,000% increase has never happened nor will it. A 10,000% increase has never occurred. A 1000% increase has never occurred. A true economist or currency expert will tell you that it's rare for a currency to increase more than 10% in a year. That's one of the many reasons I liquidated over 98% of the IQD I once held.
B says that Shabibi's job is to add value to the currency. Actually one of the many jobs that Shabibi has is to maintain stability in the exchange rate. Here's a quote from the UNCTAD Trade and Development Report in 2009.
"The report points to the importance of stabilizing real exchange rates at a sustainable level. Such a system would go a long way towards reducing the scope for speculative capital flows that generate volatility in the international financial system and distort the pattern of trade. A stable real exchange rate (RER) at a competitive level would achieve a number of targets simultaneously"
http://onedinar.forumotion.net/t8407-central-bank-of-iraq-s-governor-sinan-shabibi-and-the-united-nations-un-meeting-nov-23-24
Shabibi spent 20 years with UNCTAD. And here they are talking about the importance of stabilizing real exchange rates. How could Shabibi's job possibly be to add value? The only increases that we've seen to the dinar were brought on by inflation. From 2006-2009 they were frequently increasing the value to bring inflation down and it worked. They maintained that value for three years until the exchange of dinar for dollars brought on by departing coalition forces in late 2011 caused a spike in inflation. In late January of 2012 they bumped up the value by a third of 1% and inflation came back down. There have been no increases since and it's unlikely that there will be unless inflation becomes a factor again. No, Shabibi's job is not to raise the value. It's to maintain stability as much as possible and that's exactly what he's doing.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxn1X0DHyWE&feature=plcp
http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html
http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html
B says we're trying to destroy him but his numbers keep going up. Speaking only for myself I'm not out to destroy anybody or drive anybody's numbers down. My focus since I began blogging on the dinar is to give people the facts. That's why I provide links for nearly everything I say, unlike B. As a result I've received very little hate mail, unlike B. People understand that I'm not attacking anyone. I'm presenting the facts and addressing the misrepresentation of the facts. B says nobody likes me (even though he gets the hates mail instead of me). That's not really my concern. I didn't start blogging to win any popularity contests. I blog to put out information. A few people thank me from time to time and I appreciate that, but I'm going to say these things whether anybody reads or not. The information needs to be made available. When the dust settles and it's painfully obvious that nobody is going to get rich from owning dinar and hundreds of thousands of people were duped and lied to about what the CBI was saying, whose head will they be calling for? Mine, or the gurus?
After about five minutes of giggling B says I'm lying and calls me "pumpkin". I suppose that's better than any of the other names he's been calling me. I have to say though, I'm not too comfortable with it. Not to worry, though. He soon returns to "shmuck" and "moron".
B says I admit that the dinar's value has gone up even though I insist that Iraq has never said that they would revalue. Yes, they have raised the value in the past to fight inflation and they could very well raise the value in the future for a number of reasons. That's why I still own dinar. I'm speculating that it will go up. Not 100,000% but hopefully enough to provide me with a good profit on my now meager position (less than 2% of what I once owned). As I stated yesterday revaluations aren't announced ahead of time. When the CBI says the value of the dinar is going to be raised they're referring to the new value after they redenominate (lop) from $.00086 to $.86 with new currency. That's an increase in the value because of a redenomination but it's not a revaluation because there's no increase in purchasing power. A revaluation would be if they increased the value of the existing currency to $.001 or so.
Now if I'm not mistaken B has been saying for a couple of years that they will revalue to anywhere from $.86 to the euro which is now at about $1.22. An RV of that magnitude is impossible of course. If he's been saying instead that they're going to increase the value about 9% a year like they did from 2006-2009 then I apologize because I see that as very possible. But I'm pretty sure that's not what he's been saying.
B says that they don't have enough money in their foreign currency reserves to back 70 trillion dinar. Let's do the math. 70 trillion x $.00086 = $60.2 billion. Now, how much does Iraq have in their foreign currency reserves? WOW! It's a little over $60 billion! How about that?
B says he doesn't know what I'm arguing with him about. Let me try once again. B says the CBI is saying they're going to revalue to around a dollar. WRONG! They've said that they will redenominate. They've said that they will delete three zeros. That would change the exchange rate from 1166 dinar per dollar to 1.16 dinar per dollar, and the value would go from $.00086 to $.86 but that increase would be reflected in the new dinar, not the dinar that investors are holding. Nobody gets rich from a redenomination (except for dinar dealers and scammers who convince gullible investors that a currency can go up in value 100,000%). They just exchange currency valued at $.00086 for currency valued at $.86. 1000 of the old for 1 of the new. That's what Turkey, Russia, Romania, Zimbabwe, Brazil, and dozens of other countries have done. Countries don't issue new currency for a revaluation because revaluations are typically adjustments of 2-5%, not 100,000% or more like B and other gurus are expecting. Every reference from the CBI about raising the value is in the context of redenomination. Even if somebody uses the word "revalue" by mistake you can still see from the context that they're describing a lop.
The reason I'm still holding (very little) dinar, along with a few others who understand that "delete the zeros" means "lop", is that we have our doubts about whether Iraq will actually follow through with what the CBI is saying they will do. If they don't lop there's a good chance the value will increase in the next few years like it did from 2006-2009. Nobody would get rich off of a slow growth policy but it would likely be a lot better than you could get in the stock market or a money market account, although admittedly the risk is considerably greater. But let me say once again for B and all of his listeners - the CBI will never raise the value 1000 times from $.00086 to $.86 without a lop, nor have they been saying that they will. If B says they have he's either confused or lying. Again, every reference to an increase in the value was in the context of a redenomination. They might bump the value up a few % from time to time and obviously I'm hoping they will, but they will not announce it just like they didn't announce it ahead of time when they increased it back in January or the numerous times they raised it from 2006-2009. You don't announce revaluations. You announce redenominations. And that, B, is what we're arguing about.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LffBNxVHwoE&feature=plcp
http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html
http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html
B responds to emails about the latest Forbes piece on the dinar entitled "You Can't Fix Stupid". I posted on that last week at Dinar Douchebags. He says that the author of the piece said the CBI is full of crap. He never said any such thing. First let's take a look at what the promotional material that Breitling is quoting actually says.
"The Central Bank of Iraq, as well as the Ministry of Finance, have adopted policies to fight inflation and strengthen the Iraqi Dinar. Red tape and bureaucracy are being removed and Iraq’s banking and financial services industry is poised to develop rapidly in the coming years."
http://www.iraqfinance.co.uk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=31&Itemid=17
I don't know how relevant it is but this wasn't put out by the CBI. It was put out by the hosts of the conference - Symexco in their promotion for the event. So when B says that the guy from the Forbes article says the CBI is full of crap, that's not true. The quote wasn't put out by the CBI. Maybe B is referring to other things the CBI has stated, but as I have pointed out repeatedly the CBI has never said that they're going to revalue. They've said that the value of their currency will increase when they redenominate. Huge difference!
Now as to the content of the promotional material, it says they "have adopted policies". "Have adopted" is past tense, which means that it's already done. What did they already do? They put policies in place to fight inflation and have been successful with that. Fighting inflation strengthens the currency. What else have they done? They have increased the value. From 2006 until today the value has gone up about 27%. That strengthened the dinar. What else have they done? They have adopted a policy of backing their currency 100% with their foreign currency reserves. That also strengthened the dinar. Nothing in this promotional material says that Iraq is going to RV to an unprecedented amount. They're just saying that Iraq has laid the foundation for economic growth and a sound business environment by strengthening their currency. In other words they have inflation under control, their currency's value is going up rather than down, and it's backed 100% by their foreign currency reserves so you can expect great things with the future of the financial industry in Iraq without worrying about what will happen with their currency. Nobody but a pumper or tunnel-visioned dinarian would read anything else into this.
So Jay Adkisson, the author or the Forbes article, wasn't saying that the CBI is full of crap because they didn't write that. And he may very well agree with everything Symexco stated about Iraq's policies having strengthened the dinar because nothing in the material says "Iraq's gonna RV and make us rich".
B suggests that "these haters" (presumably myself included) are saying that Iraq will RV to pennies and that's not a lop, so in effect we're calling him a scammer because we disagree on the rate. I can't speak for the others obviously but I have never said that Iraq is definitely going to lop. I've always included the possibility of revaluation with the caveat that RV doesn't mean an increase of 100,000% or more. I've also said since I started the blog nearly a year ago that Iraq can't support more than a few cents, and that's only a remote possibility so I've been consistent in that. In fact I stated January 19 that the dinar's value wouldn't increase more than 30% by April 1. Since then it has increased a grand total of .34% (despite the chorus of "They have to RV before the Arab Summit in March" from the gurus) so I was right. I've also stated that "deleting the zeros" means lop, unlike pumpers who claim that it's referring to pulling in the notes with three zeros. My issues with B go far beyond the rate as any regular reader of my blogs can readily attest.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2r8dpCLTqY&feature=plcp
http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html
http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html
B says that Shabibi said the dinar would be a world reserve currency. I could be wrong but I don't believe Shabibi ever said that. I've searched at length for any documentation of that and all I've found is an interview with a CBI advisor.
Mudher Mohammed Saleh: As I think that the Iraqi currency amounts is very little out side and its there only in the neighboring countries like Syria, Iran, Turkey, Saudi.. etc, and it went there for a tourism and small trading process only, your question is that when the Iraqi Dinar will be a reserve currency for other countries, and my answer is that Iraq have a lot of goods and his abilities is very strong and if the steps goes right in the future the Iraqi currency will be a reserve currency for other countries.
http://americancontractor.com/uncategorized/iraq-to-sell-oil-in-dinars-says-cbi
So we can see here that Saleh (not Shabibi) was talking about the possibility of Iraq expanding beyond their immediate neighbors as a reserve currency for people traveling to Iraq for tourism and smaller trading purposes. He wasn't referring to the dinar becoming a "world reserve currency" after they RV. See how these things get taken out of context and blown out of proportion? All this guy was saying is that the only countries holding dinar right now in their foreign currency reserves are countries bordering Iraq like Syria, Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia. He was saying that if things go well maybe someday other countries like Egypt, Morroco, Russia ... etc. might hold dinar in their reserves for their citizens who will be going to Iraq as tourists or to do smaller business transactions. Right now that's not necessary because there are so few people going to Iraq for those purposes. A world reserve currency like the US dollar or the euro is completely different. Those are held by governments around the world because of their widespread use.
B says we're misrepresenting everything he says. I can't speak for his other critics but I go out of my way to document specifically what he says and accurately represent it. I even provide links for people to listen to what he's saying and see if I'm taking him out of context or misrepresenting him. So far I haven't had one email tell me that I'm lying about Breitling or twisting his words. So I'd like to know what specifically he's referring to? If I've done him wrong I'll make it right. But I'm not going to apologize for pointing out his misstatement of facts or his flawed intel or his faulty analysis. That's kind of the whole idea behind this blog, ya know?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JbroQvUsAQs&feature=plcp
http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html
http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html
I've obviously gotten under B's skin as he resorts to namecalling and accusations throughout this video. Liars. Morons. Clueless. Nuts. Bionic turds. Look, if you're going to put out volumnuous analysis on the dinar you're going to have to be able to take criticism. If you don't want people to talk about your work then get out of the guru business. I've commented on Frank Villa, Okie, Dan Atkinson, Roger Dorman, TonyTNT, Brad Huebner, Randy Koonce, TerryK, Hammerman .... none of them responded. Adam Montana made one brief reference to me and that was it. Toughen up, guy!
B reads an article about Iraq's progress which states that foreign investors have the same rights as domestic investors. Somehow Breitling equates that with revaluation of the currency and says that it proves loppers wrong. I have no doubt that Iraq's economy is growing and that there's opportunity for investors in Iraq. But there are plenty of ways to invest in Iraq without holding their cash, which is one of the riskiest investments you can make. That's what the whole discussion is about in the dinar community. I think the vast majority of loppers believe that Iraq is making progress and their economy is improving, and that is strategically good for the US. The disagreement is whether a growing economy automatically translates into a growing currency value. Historically it doesn't. Once again, currency isn't stock. The value tends to go down in emerging economies where the value of a stock tends to go up as the company grows.
B says loppers took their views from Bill Burbank. I actually wrote about BB getting shut down back in October. I certainly didn't learn about redenominations or "in country" RVs or anything else from him. I learned what I know from researching redenominations and revaluations.
B says that every one of these loppers has dinar. That's simply not true. I've stated that I still have some but it's less than 5% of what I once held. (Actually it's less than 2% right now.) I've talked to several who have either done the same or sold all the dinar they had. Many are regular readers who frequently comment on my Dinar Douchebags blog.
B says he doesn't understand why a lopper would own dinar. Well first of all I'm not sure that Iraq will lop, even though I am sure that they're describing a lop when they say that they intend to delete the zeros. They're dragging their feet about it and I think there's a good chance that they'll allow the currency to slowly appreciate upward to a penny or two. That's what I'm waiting to see. Ali Agha from Dinar Trade has said that he thinks that's how this will develop and his plan is to provide cash-in centers when the value reaches a penny. My disagreement with Breitling isn't about whether or not the dinar might increase in value. It's about what the CBI is saying (they've never said that they're going to revalue - they've said that the value of their currency will be raised when they redenominate and nobody makes money off of a redenomination) and whether their financial reports are fudging the numbers. It's about how a redenomination works. (Hint - large bills and small bills are all demonetized.) It's about whether or not a revaluation of 100,000% or more is conceivable. There's a lot more that we disagree on besides what the rate will be. The whole mechanics of currency valuation and redenomination are in dispute here. And then there's B's extensive history of getting his facts wrong, the Turkey redenomination being a perfect example.
B says that the market didn't take the value of the dinar down, but sanctions did. Here he's partly right anyway. Saddam's behaviour and the subsequent sanctions led to the depreciation. I don't agree that the value would have gone up without the sanctions, but it likely wouldn't have gone down either. Where I disagree is in his assessment of the market with regard to sanctions. The market is the market. Regardless of what triggered the hyperinflation that led to the current value, the value is what it is and the money supply is what it is, and you don't return a currency's value after a prolonged period of hyperinflation without a redenomination. PERIOD! There's no such thing as pulling in the 000 notes and reducing the money supply from 30 trillion to 30 billion (or 70 trillion M2 to 70 billion M2) in order to revalue. That's pure fantasy. And no, that's not what the CBI is telling us they're going to do.
B says that Shabibi and the CBI are telling us that they're going to strengthen the dinar. Again, partially right. What they've talked about is the strength of the dinar vs. other regional currencies when it comes to the percentage of backing. Iraq is the only country in the region that is backing their currency 100% with their foreign currency reserves. I wrote about this in my post "The Strongest Currency in the Region". They don't really have any choice since there's so little confidence in either their country or its currency, but it's true that the dinar is the strongest in that sense. That doesn't mean it's the most valuable obviously, or that it ever will be.
B mentions my interview with Scooter. He says that the fact that I interviewed him shows that my commentary on B is personal. Well here's the difference. Scooter isn't selling anything. Scooter never pumped lower denoms. And Scooter clearly said in that interview that investing in the dinar is riskier than buying penny stocks, and that anything could happen including nothing at all.
I interviewed several people late last year and early this year who I consider honest and ethical, as well as knowledgeable. I don't agree with them on everything but I wanted to present views on this investment that don't come from pumpers or people who are selling anything. Scooter fits that criteria. And I agree, he is a nice guy. And no, it's not personal.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xB_h2a5Y-MU&feature=plcp
http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html
http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html
I announced yesterday that I'm hanging it up next month, so buck up, B! This bionic turd will soon be gone.
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