8-30-2012 LDHL

B presents a stock as an example of his approach to stock picking because (he claims) some of his listeners were bugging him about it.  Actually B is pumping LD Holdings, the penny stock that he and the BH Group are involved in.  He's saying he thinks it will go from a quarter to $9.  B doesn't mention that he's part of the marketing team, nor does he mention the company's assets and liabilites which are not too attractive. 

http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/financials/drawFiling.asp?formType=10-K


Nor does he mention the high risk nature of investing in penny stocks due to stock manipulation and illiquidity.  Nor does he mention that it already spiked to the $1 range earlier this year after the BH Group started pumping it, only to fall back to the 20-30 cent range.  I would like to see B actually pick a stock for us that's listed on NASDAQ, AMEX, or the NYSE ... a stock that's harder to manipulate that will actually increase in value as a result of strong fundamentals and not hype.  I'm not holding my breath, though.

I have suspected all along that B's strategy was to present himself as a dinar authority in order to develop a following, and then pump other investments to those followers.  Well it seems that my suspicions are proving valid.  First it was lower denoms through The Treasury Vault (at a considerable markup) as a hedge against the lop (utter nonsense since all denominations are demonetized in a redenomination).  Then it was the ISX Report which displayed his company's name on the PayPal page when you order it.  Then it was REIC, the MLM real estate scheme.  And now this.

One wonders if B's followers will finally wake up when LDHL leaves the majority of them with a substantial loss?    Again, I'm not holding my breath.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fy-CSMCxIO0&feature=plcp

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html

 

 

 

8-30-2012

B announces an upcoming public appearance in the Phoenix area around the first of October.  He says it's for REIC (the MLM real estate company he's involved with) but invites his listeners to just come and hang out with him.  I can't help but wonder if he'll still be inviting his followers to come hang out if Iraq lops? 

B says it's important to have a two year food supply.  My understanding of the Mormon Church's (B's affiliation) policy on food storage is that they recommend one year of food supply on hand, so it's curious why B is saying 2 years.  I can't help wondering if he's putting together a food supply plan to sell people?  You're so cynical, Sam.
 
B talks about all of the options that Iraq has on the table.  He says that they could go up several little pips or one big pip.  A "pip" represents the smallest amount that a currency can move, so there's no such thing as a big pip.  It's like saying the price of a product can go up one big penny.
 
B says he has a special deal worked out with guys at Bank of America for cashing in, and that he'll be able to get the best rates out there.  He promises that he's not going to make a dime off the transaction, but you have to sign up on his email list to get in on it.  AHA!!!  There it is!  This is the same technique that Adam Montana uses to get people to buy into his VIP program.  You can only get the best rate by sending him (Adam) your $200/yr or whatever it is.  Methinks maybe B is using the fear of losing out at cash-in to motivate people to send him their email address so that he will have a larger base to market his crap too.  This is modern Marketing 101.  Get their names and email addresses. 

Folks, bankers know that the idea of making a fortune off of the dinar is nonsense.  Anytime you hear somebody saying that they've got a deal arranged with bankers you should run away as fast as your feet can take you.  Don't believe me?  Do your own research.  Go to a few banks and talk to some bankers about your dinar.  Ask them what kind of deal they can give you.  I'll tell you what kind of deal they have.  Leave now and we won't call the funny farm.  That's the deal.  There are no deals because there's no cash-in coming because there's no big RV coming.  I'm not a banker or an economist and I figured it out.  Surely people who earn their living dealing with exchange rates and currency are going to understand.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZgzQZkhmJEI&feature=plcp

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html

 

 

 

   

8-28-2012

B starts off talking about how he's the only guy out there talking about economic issues and how things really work.  I assume he means how buying lower denominations or electronic currency protects you from a lop, or that stock is currency (show me that in an economics textbook), or how Iraq can reduce its money supply enough to revalue to $1 by "reverse engineering" without lopping.  (All of these claims were documented in "The Breitling Catalog".)

B cites the MOP Feasibility Study that addresses the issue of setting the value of the dinar at $1.13 instead of $3.20.  He says that Iraq's not ready for a $3.20 currency and they have to "grow into that jacket".  Okay, let's think this through.  The largest revaluation in history was China at a little over 30%.  If Iraq revalues to $1.13 that would represent an increase of over 100,000%.  Can you see how ridiculous that is?  Okay, good.  Now, if they revalue to $3.20 that would represent an increase of over 300,000%.  Even more ridiculous, right?  So are we to conlcude then that this study is recommending an absurd increase of 100,000% over an even more absurd increase of 300,000%?  Or do we maybe factor in the reduction in money supply produced by the "Delete The Zeros" project which means that the current dinar will be replaced by a more valuable dinar with a proportionate reduction in the money supply?  Bear in mind that the report states the official valuation of the dinar as $3.208, not $.000857, so they're not talking about an RV from less than a tenth of a penny to $1.13.  They're working off the old Saddam era valuation and contemplating whether or not it would be feasible to return to that in their monetary reform plan which includes a redenomination.

You see, if they remove three zeros from the nominal value the new value will be 86 cents.  Now, would an increase from 86 cents to $3.20 be feasible post RD (lop)?  This report says no, they would be better off closer to $1.13.  So according to my understanding of this report you would have to exchange your IQD for the new dinar at a ratio of 1000:1 old for new, and then hope that it will appreciate from $.86 to $1.13 which would be about a 32% increase.  After a deduction of the 20% markup that most incurred on their IQD purchase and the 20% likely markup on the exchange to the new dinar that would leave the investor at a loss of around 8%.  Not good.

Now according to B's understanding of this report you would exchange your IQD for US dollars at a ratio of 1:1.13 IQD for USD which means your 1 million IQD would be worth $1.13 million USD minus exchange fees.  (And who the hell cares about exchange fees if they just won the lottery by turning $1,000 into more than $1,000,000 right?)

At 17:45 in B says that when he first got into this investment they weren't talking about redenominating.  No, they were talking about getting rid of three zeros and coming in at about a buck.  (facepalm)  That IS a redenomination!!! 

B then wraps it up with yet another misrepresentation of my position.  "This guy got caught telling everybody he has dinar".  Caught?  I have consistently stated for the past 11 months that I still own some, but that I sold off 95% (now over 98%) of it after doing my research last summer.  "Okay, you might make 2 cents".  I said in that first post "RV Reality Check" that the most Iraq could support is a penny or two, and that is only a remote possibility.  If they reduce their money supply (which they aren't doing) and if their foreign currency reserves grow substantially (which seems to be the case) or if they go to another means of backing their currency (which they haven't, nor have they indicated any likelihood that they will) and if conditions vastly improve in Iraq (that's not the case either) ... under the most ideal of circumstances they couldn't support more than a penny or two, and even then I doubt that they would want to given their emphasis on stability.  I have never predicted an RV to a penny.  When I stated "a penny or two" in that first post that wasn't a guru prediction.  That was an assessment of the absolute maximum conceivable potential for owning dinar as opposed to the predictions of $1-$4 that we're hearing from pumpers.  Along with that assessment I included the very real possibility of losing 100% which B has never acknowledged.  Even in this video he's telling people they better buy a "shitload more" of dinar if they only expect a 2 cent RV, without any mention of the risk.  No, I have consistently stated that you're likely to make less than a 300% return if you make any profit at all.  In fact I posted about this in "A No-Brainer" in April.  B's blatant misrepresentation of my statements should tell you all you need to know about this guy.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_tGE0zXwWY&feature=plcp

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html






   

 

 

 

 

8-22-2012

B refers to those guys who own dinar but tell everybody not to buy, and yet they run dinar ads on their site.  If he's talking about me he's wrong.  (Imagine that!)  I have never told anybody not to buy dinar or that they should sell their dinar.  I simply tell them the facts so that they can make an informed decision, free from they hype that comes from these gurus.  As for running dinar ads, I only run Google AdSense.  I have no control over what ads are displayed.  I could certainly make more in ad revenue if I placed a dinar dealer ad on the site, but then I would be taking money from a dinar dealer and I wouldn't feel right about that. 

B states that these loppers have "pretty much shut up".  Well, not exactly.  I admit I don't post about B every day, but then he's only got one of me to address and I've got a few dozen pumpers and scammers to keep track of.  I do my best but it's hard to keep up sometimes.

B states that Maliki could cause the RV to be lower.  I think he believes this because he's under the impression that Shabibi is talking about an RV instead of a lop.  The only chance any dinar investor (myself included) has to make money from owning the IQD is if Shabibi's "delete the zeros" plan doesn't go forward.  (At this point I'm betting my paltry sum of IQD that it won't.) So in that respect Maliki is the investor's best friend.   

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t45brOMEjOs&feature=plcp

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html

8-20-2012

B states that evil people are lying about Iraq having 75 trillion dinar printed.  I wondered who he was referring to, so I did a search for 75 trillion iraqi dinar and couldn't find anything.  I have to assume that he's referring to people who have actually read the financial statement on the CBI website and saw the M2 listing of over 70 trillion dinar.  That's not all printed currency of course.  It's a combination of cash and electronic currency.  But it doesn't matter if it's paper or digital, it all has to be backed and it is being backed now by Iraq's foreign currency reserves. 

http://www.cbi.iq/documents/key%20financial.xls

Line 79 says Currency Outside Banks and for June 2012 it shows 30 trillion 246 billion dinar.  (These figures are done in billions per Line 47, so 30,000 billion is 30 trillion.)  Then line 88 shows 40 trillion 535 billion dinar in deposits.  If you add those two figures you get the M2 amount of 70 trillion 781 billion dinar in line 87.  As I've pointed out several times if you divide the foreign currency reserves figure by the M2 figure you'll end up with something close to the current value of the dinar which is $.000857.  (The FCR was at $60 billion and the M2 was at 70 trillion.  The latest report on the FCR has it up to $67 billion so I expect a spike to 75-78 trillion in the M2 within the next month or two.)

I haven't heard anybody say that Iraq has printed 70 trillion dinar.  This statement shows 30 trillion outside of banks so that would be the printed currency.  The rest you would assume is mostly electronic although they've certainly got some cash in the banks as well.  The point is their total money supply is 70 trillion dinar whether it's printed or electronic, and that's the reason they can't RV to $3, $2, $1, or even a penny.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ej4LC6RPjYA&feature=plcp

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html

8-16-2012

B says that the word "revaluation" has been used by the media and even sources in Iraq.  I agree, it has.  I even posted about this a few weeks ago in "The Ambiguity of Revaluation".  Sometimes people in the media say "devalue" when they mean "depreciate".  Sometimes people say "exchange rate" when they mean "value".  Sometimes people use the word "revalue" when they're describing a redenomination.  You can't expect everybody to be up to speed on the terminology like economists are.  That's why you have to see what they're describing, and these articles are always describing a lop when they refer to deleting the zeros and issuing a new currency at a ratio of 1000 old for 1 new dinar even if they use the word "revalue".  Oddly enough B then proceeds to read one of these very articles about "cutting the zeros" and "redenomination" when discussing the time frame.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oy2Ht1ZcBx8&list=UUFsclL8v97dpvyD5GmvGLFg&index=1&feature=plcp

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html

8-15-2012

Did my ears deceive me, or did B just concede the possibility of a lop?  He said that Shabibi has three choices.

1. Raise the value (presumably via revaluation)
2. Redenomination (that would be a lop)
3. A "high breed" of the two (I think he means hybrid which I agree is a possibility.  A lop would put the value of the new currency at $.86 and they could then RV 16% to gain parity with the US dollar.  At that point most investors would almost break even! SWEET!!!)

B continues to insist that Iraq has reduced the money supply despite the fact that the CBI website clearly indicates that they have been increasing the money supply.  The currency outside of banks is listed at 30 trillion dinar and the M2 is listed at 70 trillion for June 2012.  So either we believe the CBI website or we believe B who has been proven to have no credibility whatsoever.  (See the links below.)  I'm not going to participate any longer in this childish "yes they did, no they didn't" game.  Anybody who reads my research on B and concludes that he's worth listening to deserves whatever comes their way.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hsvqwbA-AaE&feature=plcp

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html

8-14-2012

B repeats his triangulation "risk management" strategy.  Invest in the dinar (risky and overstated potential), ISX (probably safer but still considerable risk), and Warka (essentially an insolvent institution).  Gotta love it! 

B talks about Iraq becoming the #2 oil producer in OPEC.  While that's true, it's important to remember that the #1 oil producer is Saudi Arabia and their currency is valued at about 27 cents with a total money supply of about 1 trillion riyals and a GDP about five times that of Iraq's.  And of course their country is more stable and their economy is more diversified than Iraq's.  But let's just assume for the sake of argument that Iraq and SA are equally stable and diverse.  Iraq is currently backing 70 trillion dinar in their M2 100% with their foreign currency reserves of about $60 billion.  ($60 bl / 70 tl = $.000857 which is the current official value).  Saudi's monetary base is about $270 billion.  To have an equal monetary base with a valuation of $.86 Iraq would need to reduce their M2 money supply from 70 trillion to about 314 billion, a reduction of over 99%.  And of course with Iraq's GDP being 20% of Saudi's the reduction would need to be even greater.  So maybe you can see now why some of us question the RV math of people like B.         

B talks about "these guys who say it's a scam every damn day".  I assume I'm included in that group, although I have never referred to the dinar investment as a scam.  I have called the idea that the dinar will increase in value 1000,000% a scam, but since I started blogging on the dinar I have consistently stated that the possibility exists to make a profit of 100-200%, but that you have to weigh that against the considerable risks involved.  Once I became aware of the risks and realistic potential I reduced my position by over 98%. 

B goes on to talk about these guys who backtracked and are inconsistent.  I don't know if he's including me in that group but I'm going to assume that he is.  The problem here is not inconsistency on my part.  I would say it's poor reading comprehension on B's part.  I have consistently said that progress is being made in Iraq, but that progress and economic growth don't automatically translate into an increase in the value of the dinar.  I've consistently stated the true potential and true risks.  I've consistently stated the possibility of a lop which is after all what "deleting the zeros" means.  I have also consistently stated that the dinar's value could go up, although it can't RV to 86 cents or more like B is saying.  Nothing has changed there either.  I'd put my consistency up against B's any day.  In the time I've been researching him he's gone from "it's a 100% sure thing" to "we don't know what they'll do".  He's gone from "$.86 to the euro" to "it could come out at 6 cents".  He's gone from "it's like owning a lottery ticket" to "If you're prepared to jump out of the window because you didn't make money off this investment and you're gonna throw a little fit and all that stuff, you should have never been in this investment in the first place." 

B says about his critics "it's over ... it's just over".  Puzzling why he keeps talking about us if that's the case?



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p1BqAdfsf8M&feature=plcp

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html

8-10-2012 2nd Show

B says that the idea that Iraq will only raise the value of their currency when they redenominate is false.  I agree, and I never claimed that they won't raise the value.  They've raised it many times in the past and may very well raise it in the future.  I'm hoping they do, in fact.  But they won't raise it 1000 times its current value.  It will likely be an increase of less than 10% and won't require the printing or distribution of any new currency.  What I have said repeatedly is that when they say they are going to increase the value its always within the context of redenomination which won't produce any profit for investors.  (8/12/12 NOTE!  When I posted this I forgot that they have also talked about raising the value via the auctions.  That doesn't change the official value, however.  They just use the auctions to manipulate the money supply to bring the street value back up to around the official value from time to time.  My point is still valid that they aren't referring to raising the official value which is what a revaluation is.)  If they want to bump up the value a few % tomorrow they'll just do it.  No fanfare.  No announcements.  Just change it like they did back in January.  That's how revaluations work, folks.  That's why you shouldn't listen to gurus.

B says that a 27% increase in the value of the dinar (as occurred from 2006-2009) is nothing.  Actually, given the history of currencies and valuations a growth of 9% a year is huge.  True, it's nothing compared to the 100,000% increase (from $.00086 to $.86) that B and other gurus are expecting, but a 100,000% increase has never happened nor will it.  A 10,000% increase has never occurred.  A 1000% increase has never occurred.  A true economist or currency expert will tell you that it's rare for a currency to increase more than 10% in a year.  That's one of the many reasons I liquidated over 98% of the IQD I once held.

B says that Shabibi's job is to add value to the currency.  Actually one of the many jobs that Shabibi has is to maintain stability in the exchange rate.  Here's a quote from the UNCTAD Trade and Development Report in 2009.

"The report points to the importance of stabilizing real exchange rates at a sustainable level. Such a system would go a long way towards reducing the scope for speculative capital flows that generate volatility in the international financial system and distort the pattern of trade. A stable real exchange rate (RER) at a competitive level would achieve a number of targets simultaneously"

http://onedinar.forumotion.net/t8407-central-bank-of-iraq-s-governor-sinan-shabibi-and-the-united-nations-un-meeting-nov-23-24


Shabibi spent 20 years with UNCTAD.  And here they are talking about the importance of stabilizing real exchange rates.  How could Shabibi's job possibly be to add value?  The only increases that we've seen to the dinar were brought on by inflation.  From 2006-2009 they were frequently increasing the value to bring inflation down and it worked.  They maintained that value for three years until the exchange of dinar for dollars brought on by departing coalition forces in late 2011 caused a spike in inflation.  In late January of 2012 they bumped up the value by a third of 1% and inflation came back down.  There have been no increases since and it's unlikely that there will be unless inflation becomes a factor again.  No, Shabibi's job is not to raise the value.  It's to maintain stability as much as possible and that's exactly what he's doing. 


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxn1X0DHyWE&feature=plcp

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html

   

8-9-2012

B says we're trying to destroy him but his numbers keep going up.  Speaking only for myself I'm not out to destroy anybody or drive anybody's numbers down.  My focus since I began blogging on the dinar is to give people the facts.  That's why I provide links for nearly everything I say, unlike B.  As a result I've received very little hate mail, unlike B.  People understand that I'm not attacking anyone.  I'm presenting the facts and addressing the misrepresentation of the facts.  B says nobody likes me (even though he gets the hates mail instead of me).  That's not really my concern.  I didn't start blogging to win any popularity contests.  I blog to put out information.  A few people thank me from time to time and I appreciate that, but I'm going to say these things whether anybody reads or not.  The information needs to be made available.  When the dust settles and it's painfully obvious that nobody is going to get rich from owning dinar and hundreds of thousands of people were duped and lied to about what the CBI was saying, whose head will they be calling for?  Mine, or the gurus?

After about five minutes of giggling B says I'm lying and calls me "pumpkin".  I suppose that's better than any of the other names he's been calling me.  I have to say though, I'm not too comfortable with it.  Not to worry, though.  He soon returns to "shmuck" and "moron".

B says I admit that the dinar's value has gone up even though I insist that Iraq has never said that they would revalue.  Yes, they have raised the value in the past to fight inflation and they could very well raise the value in the future for a number of reasons.  That's why I still own dinar.  I'm speculating that it will go up.  Not 100,000% but hopefully enough to provide me with a good profit on my now meager position (less than 2% of what I once owned).  As I stated yesterday revaluations aren't announced ahead of time.  When the CBI says the value of the dinar is going to be raised they're referring to the new value after they redenominate (lop) from $.00086 to $.86 with new currency.  That's an increase in the value because of a redenomination but it's not a revaluation because there's no increase in purchasing power.  A revaluation would be if they increased the value of the existing currency to $.001 or so. 

Now if I'm not mistaken B has been saying for a couple of years that they will revalue to anywhere from $.86 to the euro which is now at about $1.22.  An RV of that magnitude is impossible of course.  If he's been saying instead that they're going to increase the value about 9% a year like they did from 2006-2009 then I apologize because I see that as very possible.  But I'm pretty sure that's not what he's been saying. 

B says that they don't have enough money in their foreign currency reserves to back 70 trillion dinar. Let's do the math. 70 trillion x $.00086 = $60.2 billion. Now, how much does Iraq have in their foreign currency reserves? WOW! It's a little over $60 billion!  How about that?

B says he doesn't know what I'm arguing with him about.  Let me try once again.  B says the CBI is saying they're going to revalue to around a dollar.  WRONG!  They've said that they will redenominate.  They've said that they will delete three zeros.  That would change the exchange rate from 1166 dinar per dollar to 1.16 dinar per dollar, and the value would go from $.00086 to $.86 but that increase would be reflected in the new dinar, not the dinar that investors are holding.  Nobody gets rich from a redenomination (except for dinar dealers and scammers who convince gullible investors that a currency can go up in value 100,000%).  They just exchange currency valued at $.00086 for currency valued at $.86.   1000 of the old for 1 of the new.  That's what Turkey, Russia, Romania, Zimbabwe, Brazil, and dozens of other countries have done.  Countries don't issue new currency for a revaluation because revaluations are typically adjustments of 2-5%, not 100,000% or more like B and other gurus are expecting. Every reference from the CBI about raising the value is in the context of redenomination.  Even if somebody uses the word "revalue" by mistake you can still see from the context that they're describing a lop. 

The reason I'm still holding (very little) dinar, along with a few others who understand that "delete the zeros" means "lop", is that we have our doubts about whether Iraq will actually follow through with what the CBI is saying they will do.  If they don't lop there's a good chance the value will increase in the next few years like it did from 2006-2009.  Nobody would get rich off of a slow growth policy but it would likely be a lot better than you could get in the stock market or a money market account, although admittedly the risk is considerably greater.  But let me say once again for B and all of his listeners - the CBI will never raise the value 1000 times from $.00086 to $.86 without a lop, nor have they been saying that they will.  If B says they have he's either confused or lying.  Again, every reference to an increase in the value was in the context of a redenomination.  They might bump the value up a few % from time to time and obviously I'm hoping they will, but they will not announce it just like they didn't announce it ahead of time when they increased it back in January or the numerous times they raised it from 2006-2009.  You don't announce revaluations.  You announce redenominations.  And that, B, is what we're arguing about.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LffBNxVHwoE&feature=plcp

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html

8-8-2012

B responds to emails about the latest Forbes piece on the dinar entitled "You Can't Fix Stupid".  I posted on that last week at Dinar Douchebags.  He says that the author of the piece said the CBI is full of crap.  He never said any such thing.  First let's take a look at what the promotional material that Breitling is quoting actually says.

"The Central Bank of Iraq, as well as the Ministry of Finance, have adopted policies to fight inflation and strengthen the Iraqi Dinar. Red tape and bureaucracy are being removed and Iraq’s banking and financial services industry is poised to develop rapidly in the coming years."

http://www.iraqfinance.co.uk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=31&Itemid=17


I don't know how relevant it is but this wasn't put out by the CBI.  It was put out by the hosts of the conference - Symexco in their promotion for the event.  So when B says that the guy from the Forbes article says the CBI is full of crap, that's not true.  The quote wasn't put out by the CBI.  Maybe B is referring to other things the CBI has stated, but as I have pointed out repeatedly the CBI has never said that they're going to revalue.  They've said that the value of their currency will increase when they redenominate.  Huge difference!

Now as to the content of the promotional material, it says they "have adopted policies".  "Have adopted" is past tense, which means that it's already done.  What did they already do?  They put policies in place to fight inflation and have been successful with that.  Fighting inflation strengthens the currency.  What else have they done?  They have increased the value.  From 2006 until today the value has gone up about 27%.  That strengthened the dinar.  What else have they done?  They have adopted a policy of backing their currency 100% with their foreign currency reserves.  That also strengthened the dinar.  Nothing in this promotional material says that Iraq is going to RV to an unprecedented amount.  They're just saying that Iraq has laid the foundation for economic growth and a sound business environment by strengthening their currency.  In other words they have inflation under control, their currency's value is going up rather than down, and it's backed 100% by their foreign currency reserves so you can expect great things with the future of the financial industry in Iraq without worrying about what will happen with their currency.  Nobody but a pumper or tunnel-visioned dinarian would read anything else into this.

So Jay Adkisson, the author or the Forbes article, wasn't saying that the CBI is full of crap because they didn't write that.  And he may very well agree with everything Symexco stated about Iraq's policies having strengthened the dinar because nothing in the material says "Iraq's gonna RV and make us rich". 

B suggests that "these haters" (presumably myself included) are saying that Iraq will RV to pennies and that's not a lop, so in effect we're calling him a scammer because we disagree on the rate.  I can't speak for the others obviously but I have never said that Iraq is definitely going to lop.  I've always included the possibility of revaluation with the caveat that RV doesn't mean an increase of 100,000% or more.  I've also said since I started the blog nearly a year ago that Iraq can't support more than a few cents, and that's only a remote possibility so I've been consistent in that.  In fact I stated January 19 that the dinar's value wouldn't increase more than 30% by April 1.  Since then it has increased a grand total of .34% (despite the chorus of "They have to RV before the Arab Summit in March" from the gurus) so I was right.  I've also stated that "deleting the zeros" means lop, unlike pumpers who claim that it's referring to pulling in the notes with three zeros.  My issues with B go far beyond the rate as any regular reader of my blogs can readily attest.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2r8dpCLTqY&feature=plcp

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html

8-7-2012

B says that Shabibi said the dinar would be a world reserve currency.  I could be wrong but I don't believe Shabibi ever said that.  I've searched at length for any documentation of that and all I've found is an interview with a CBI advisor.


Mudher Mohammed Saleh: As I think that the Iraqi currency amounts is very little out side and its there only in the neighboring countries like Syria, Iran, Turkey, Saudi.. etc, and it went there for a tourism and small trading process only, your question is that when the Iraqi Dinar will be a reserve currency for other countries, and my answer is that Iraq have a lot of goods and his abilities is very strong and if the steps goes right in the future the Iraqi currency will be a reserve currency for other countries.

http://americancontractor.com/uncategorized/iraq-to-sell-oil-in-dinars-says-cbi

So we can see here that Saleh (not Shabibi) was talking about the possibility of Iraq expanding beyond their immediate neighbors as a reserve currency for people traveling to Iraq for tourism and smaller trading purposes.  He wasn't referring to the dinar becoming a "world reserve currency" after they RV.  See how these things get taken out of context and blown out of proportion?  All this guy was saying is that the only countries holding dinar right now in their foreign currency reserves are countries bordering Iraq like Syria, Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia.  He was saying that if things go well maybe someday other countries like Egypt, Morroco, Russia ... etc. might hold dinar in their reserves for their citizens who will be going to Iraq as tourists or to do smaller business transactions.  Right now that's not necessary because there are so few people going to Iraq for those purposes.  A world reserve currency like the US dollar or the euro is completely different.  Those are held by governments around the world because of their widespread use.


B says we're misrepresenting everything he says.  I can't speak for his other critics but I go out of my way to document specifically what he says and accurately represent it.  I even provide links for people to listen to what he's saying and see if I'm taking him out of context or misrepresenting him.  So far I haven't had one email tell me that I'm lying about Breitling or twisting his words.  So I'd like to know what specifically he's referring to?  If I've done him wrong I'll make it right.  But I'm not going to apologize for pointing out his misstatement of facts or his flawed intel or his faulty analysis.  That's kind of the whole idea behind this blog, ya know?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JbroQvUsAQs&feature=plcp


http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html

8-6-2012

I've obviously gotten under B's skin as he resorts to namecalling and accusations throughout this video.  Liars.  Morons.  Clueless.  Nuts.  Bionic turds.  Look, if you're going to put out volumnuous analysis on the dinar you're going to have to be able to take criticism.  If you don't want people to talk about your work then get out of the guru business.  I've commented on Frank Villa, Okie, Dan Atkinson, Roger Dorman, TonyTNT, Brad Huebner, Randy Koonce, TerryK, Hammerman .... none of them responded.  Adam Montana made one brief reference to me and that was it.  Toughen up, guy! 

B reads an article about Iraq's progress which states that foreign investors have the same rights as domestic investors.  Somehow Breitling equates that with revaluation of the currency and says that it proves loppers wrong.  I have no doubt that Iraq's economy is growing and that there's opportunity for investors in Iraq.  But there are plenty of ways to invest in Iraq without holding their cash, which is one of the riskiest investments you can make.  That's what the whole discussion is about in the dinar community.  I think the vast majority of loppers believe that Iraq is making progress and their economy is improving, and that is strategically good for the US.  The disagreement is whether a growing economy automatically translates into a growing currency value.  Historically it doesn't.  Once again, currency isn't stock.  The value tends to go down in emerging economies where the value of a stock tends to go up as the company grows. 

B says loppers took their views from Bill Burbank.  I actually wrote about BB getting shut down back in October. I certainly didn't learn about redenominations or "in country" RVs or anything else from him.  I learned what I know from researching redenominations and revaluations. 

B says that every one of these loppers has dinar.  That's simply not true.  I've stated that I still have some but it's less than 5% of what I once held.  (Actually it's less than 2% right now.)  I've talked to several who have either done the same or sold all the dinar they had.  Many are regular readers who frequently comment on my Dinar Douchebags blog. 

B says he doesn't understand why a lopper would own dinar.  Well first of all I'm not sure that Iraq will lop, even though I am sure that they're describing a lop when they say that they intend to delete the zeros.  They're dragging their feet about it and I think there's a good chance that they'll allow the currency to slowly appreciate upward to a penny or two.  That's what I'm waiting to see.  Ali Agha from Dinar Trade has said that he thinks that's how this will develop and his plan is to provide cash-in centers when the value reaches a penny.  My disagreement with Breitling isn't about whether or not the dinar might increase in value.  It's about what the CBI is saying (they've never said that they're going to revalue - they've said that the value of their currency will be raised when they redenominate and nobody makes money off of a redenomination) and whether their financial reports are fudging the numbers.  It's about how a redenomination works.  (Hint - large bills and small bills are all demonetized.)  It's about whether or not a revaluation of 100,000% or more is conceivable.  There's a lot more that we disagree on besides what the rate will be.  The whole mechanics of currency valuation and redenomination are in dispute here.  And then there's B's extensive history of getting his facts wrong, the Turkey redenomination being a perfect example.

B says that the market didn't take the value of the dinar down, but sanctions did.  Here he's partly right anyway.  Saddam's behaviour and the subsequent sanctions led to the depreciation.  I don't agree that the value would have gone up without the sanctions, but it likely wouldn't have gone down either.  Where I disagree is in his assessment of the market with regard to sanctions.  The market is the market.  Regardless of what triggered the hyperinflation that led to the current value, the value is what it is and the money supply is what it is, and you don't return a currency's value after a prolonged period of hyperinflation without a redenomination.  PERIOD!  There's no such thing as pulling in the 000 notes and reducing the money supply from 30 trillion to 30 billion (or 70 trillion M2 to 70 billion M2) in order to revalue.  That's pure fantasy.  And no, that's not what the CBI is telling us they're going to do.

B says that Shabibi and the CBI are telling us that they're going to strengthen the dinar.  Again, partially right.  What they've talked about is the strength of the dinar vs. other regional currencies when it comes to the percentage of backing.  Iraq is the only country in the region that is backing their currency 100% with their foreign currency reserves.  I wrote about this in my post "The Strongest Currency in the Region".  They don't really have any choice since there's so little confidence in either their country or its currency, but it's true that the dinar is the strongest in that sense.  That doesn't mean it's the most valuable obviously, or that it ever will be. 

B mentions my interview with Scooter.  He says that the fact that I interviewed him shows that my commentary on B is personal.  Well here's the difference.  Scooter isn't selling anything.  Scooter never pumped lower denoms.  And Scooter clearly said in that interview that investing in the dinar is riskier than buying penny stocks, and that anything could happen including nothing at all.  

I interviewed several people late last year and early this year who I consider honest and ethical, as well as knowledgeable.  I don't agree with them on everything but I wanted to present views on this investment that don't come from pumpers or people who are selling anything.  Scooter fits that criteria.  And I agree, he is a nice guy.  And no, it's not personal.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xB_h2a5Y-MU&feature=plcp
 
http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html



I announced yesterday that I'm hanging it up next month, so buck up, B!  This bionic turd will soon be gone.

7-28-2012

A listener emails B and asks about the CIA's figure of 68 trillion dinar in Iraq's M2.  B says he doesn't believe it.  (I'm SHOCKED!  LOL!)  He says that every statement from the CBI says 30 trillion, so how can it be 70 trillion?  Well obviously those statements are talking about the M1 (cash), which is approximately 30 trillion.  But Iraq's foreign currency reserves are backing everything in the M2 (cash, electronic currency, financial instruments ... etc.) which is approximately 70 trillion.  B says he talks to economists and they can't figure out why the articles say 30 trillion and the financial statements say 70 trillion.  I have a hard time believing that any journeyman economist can't see a distinction between M1 and M2.  It would be like a mechanic not recognizing the difference between a transmission and a powertrain.  Just who are these economists he's talking to?


B calls the view that Iraq is maintaining a stable exchange rate by printing more money as their foreign currency reserves increase a "cockamamie idea".  Actually it's not a theory at all.  It's a documented fact that their foreign currency reserves figure is growing, their M2 figure is increasing, and their exchange rate is stable.  If you want to say those figures are wrong then your argument isn't with me or any other investor.  Your argument is with the CBI.  When Shabibi was in DC last year he talked about maintaining stability with the exchange rate, and it would appear that this is how they're doing that. 


B calls me a bubblehead again for taking exception to his statement that he doesn't see anything negatively affecting our investment.  He acknowledges that there are things that can slow down progress but they're still moving forward.  On that we agree, they're making progress at a snail's pace which is why nobody should expect to get rich off of owning dinar.  At best this is a long term highly speculative investment.  Maybe there's hope for B after all. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZU9AeXTzaE&feature=plcp


http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html

7-27-2012

B "explains" to a listener why the banks aren't dealing in dinar.  He says it's too much of a hassle to sell dinar, but he claims that they're still buying.  Here's my explanation for why they're not handling dinar.  They view the dinar investment as a scam.  B won't give you any documentation but I will.




This statement is from Wells Fargo:


“Some investors are curious about the Iraqi currency as a potential investment. Expectations for the currency to significantly gain in value against the dollar repeatedly have been disappointed since its introduction in 2004. Considering the illiquidity and fraud risk, Wells Fargo Bank has no plans to trade in the Iraqi currency, and considering that Iraq remains a dangerous place with an uncertain future, we strongly advise investors against taking the risk of buying Iraqi dinar as an investment.”


http://www.theiqdteam.com/uploads/3/5/3/7/3537881/internationalmarketsweekly.pdf






This is from the BOA website:

"Bank of America, N.A. does not buy or sell Iraqi Dinar (IQD) banknotes, and currently has no plans to offer this service in the future. You may have read on the Internet or heard from friends that Bank of America, N.A. buys and sells Iraqi Dinar banknotes, or has plans to offer this service. This information is not correct. We urge you to seek the advice of a competent, professional investment advisor before making an investment. You should treat with extreme caution any investment schemes you read about on the Internet, in chat rooms, or hear about from friends or acquaintances."

https://www4.bankofamerica.com/foreigncurrency/index.action?template=faqs#exchange_iraqi_dinar




Then there's this from the state of Washington Department of Financial Institutions:


"The Washington State Department of Financial Institutions is warning consumers about potential scams regarding Iraqi Dinar currency exchange services. While foreign exchange scams are not new, the sudden popularity with the Dinar and resulting consumer complaints to our banking partners is concerning."


http://www.dfi.wa.gov/consumers/alerts/iraqi-dinar-scams.htm






A listener asks Breitling about the possibility of not being able to withdraw his funds from Warka after the RV.  B asks "why would they do that?"  He then starts talking about supply times velocity and ISX which has nothing to do with the question.  Here's my response to B's question.  They would do that if they didn't have the money.  Warka is in custodianship, and has been for some time.   


"Central bank deputy governor Mudher Kasim said the custodianship decision was prompted by growing liquidity problems at Warka, its difficulties in meeting depositor withdrawals, and its failure to reach an agreement in talks with Standard Chartered on the foreign bank acquiring a majority stake."


http://www.iraq-businessnews.com/tag/warka-bank/




B then talks about how Iraq isn't ready to have the dominant currency in the region, and mentions that sometimes it's the government behind the currency that's the problem.  Agreed.  I say that all the time, and this is one of the negatives that could pose a problem for this investment.  Iraq's government is rife with corruption and incompetence, and yet B continues to say he doesn't see any negatives. 


B says he never invests in something he doesn't understand.  Well then ..... nah!  Too easy.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YAFY5JRDKI&feature=plcp


http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html

7-26-2012

B says I'm a shmuck for making a big deal out of cracking the Breitling case back in October when I wrote "Breitling Busted".  He says he was out there in the open meeting people all the time.  He says that there were a thousand people at the BH Group dinar summit last summer and he was shaking hands and meeting people and having a great time. 


Okay, first of all I've seen the BH Group's facilities and there's no way they could accomodate more than a few dozen people if that's where they met.  Maybe that was an exaggeration, or maybe he was referring to their trip to the ball park where nobody ever heard of Breitling or even cared, so no biggie.  The problem is he wasn't out there meeting people in the dinar world as Tony Elder.  Nobody knew that he had Roger and Angela Dorman listed as friends on his Facebook page until I reported that, and as soon as I did he revised it. 


I did a keyword search for "Tony Elder" and "dinar" in Google and here's what I came up with:

As you can see most of the results are from my blog.  The Dinar Vets result was shortly after I posted Breitling Busted, and the Iraqi Currency Watch result is Marcus Curtis' blog which got the information from my blog.  The same for Real Scam's site.  Sure, there were hundreds of references to Tony Breitling before I posted that, but nobody knew the name Tony Elder other than a few people close to Breitling like Roger Dorman, Rudy Coenen, and Brad Huebner. 

But the point of revealing his name wasn't to prove what a great cybersleuth I am.  It was to discover the nature of his relationship with Roger Dorman from Dinar Daddy.  As you may recall Roger had recently been exposed for introducing Angela from The Currency Vault (now The Treasury Vault) as a mere business acquaintence when in fact she is Mrs. Dorman.  So after that the dinar community knew that Roger was not just a forum owner but a partner in a dinar dealership.  And all the while Breitling was out there pumping the lower denoms with his Breitling Insurance deal from The Treasury Vault.  Then the ISX Report comes out and Roger was talking about "those guys at the ISX Report" putting together such a great report ... blah blah blah .... and when you order the report Breitling's company Select Play Media comes up on the PayPal page.  So yeah, I felt that it was important to get to the bottom of it and that's exactly what I did.  No apologies there.

B calls me "cheesedick" and "bubblehead" for saying that there are negative things happening in Iraq like the bomb that went off the other day killing 100 people.  "Did the rate go down?" he asked.  No, it didn't because it's not a free floating currency, but that's not the point.  Instability and violence discourage investment, which affects GDP, which affects our investment.  B said yesterday that he hasn't seen anything that would negatively affect our investment.  All you have to do is open your eyes.  Iraq is still a very dangerous place, and that danger means risk for investors.  Also, the CBI has issued numerous statements indicating their intent to lop.  A lop is bad for dinar investors.  B would have much more credibility if he would simply acknowledge these risks or "negatives" instead of saying he hasn't seen any.  

Interestingly enough B says later in the video that if everything goes bad in Iraq he still comes out ahead because he has already pulled out more than he put in.  So obviously he's very well aware of the risks, but he doesn't equally emphasize those risks to his listeners.  One of the things that a licensed investment advisor has to do is inform the client of all the risks in every investment opportunity.  These gurus don't do that, but then they're not licensed investment advisors anyway so why should we really expect them to?  That's why I started blogging about gurus.  They're not professionals.  Most are just hacks.  You're better off listening to a true expert like John Jagerson who will inform you of the risks.     

B says I'm taking shots at him.  Well if you define "taking shots" as pointing out factual errors and flawed analysis and offering documentation for your views then I guess I'm guilty.  If you call exposing a connection to a dinar dealer "taking shots" then I'm guilty as charged.  I don't call B names, I don't use profanity, I don't tell people he's drunk or vomiting at the mouth.  I just stick with the facts.  It's called commentary.  It's called critique.  The proper response on B's part would be to rebut with documentation to back up his position and explain in an articulate fashion why he's right and I'm wrong.  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FhaRakN8LpI&feature=plcp


http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html

7-25-2012 PM

WOW!  I just listened to B's rebuttal of my last two posts.  I must have really struck a nerve.  Let me just say that this is nothing personal.  It's commentary.  It's a critique.  If you're going to do several videos a week telling people about the dinar then you need to be prepared for that.  I was never a member at IIF or Dinar Daddy and I was never banned because of Breitling or Roger so there's no personal vendetta at all here.  That's the first thing B got wrong.  In this video, anyway.  I'm not a Breitling hater.  I just hate to see people misled and misinformed because of what people like Breitling are doing. 


And B stated twice that I talk about how I have a ton of dinar "just in case".  I never said any such thing.  Read through my "Dinar Douchebags" blog and you'll see that I said I have some dinar but I sold over 95% of what I had once I realized what the true risk vs. reward was.  The amount of money I have tied up in dinar right now is probably less than 90% of investors.  I do feel that there's a good chance that the Iraqi parliament will vote down the "delete the zeros" project and allow for a substantial increase in the IQD over the next year or two, and by "substantial" I don't mean millions.  Maybe 25% a year.  Possibly more.  It's a bit of a gamble, but it's entertaining for me.  I've never seen anything quite like the dinar investment and I like having something at stake so I can be a part of however this plays out.  It's kind of like buying tickets to the Super Bowl.  By the time you pay air fare and lodging it might cost you a few grand and your team might lose, but you want to be a part of the experience.  (And no, I'm not saying I have a few grand invested.)


B says nobody listens to me and I don't have many readers.  He can see the numbers.  Well maybe he's looking at the numbers of this blog.  I get about 600 hits a day on Dinar Douchebags which isn't much compared to the pumpers' sites I know, but it's probably more than any other anti-dinar pumper site.  I'd rather have 600 hits a day telling people the truth than 6000 hits a day feeding them BS so that I can sell them a bunch of crap.  I sleep much better this way. 


The reason I started this blog is I didn't want to bore people with Breitling's nonsense.  My readers don't listen to B and don't want to constantly hear what he's saying so out of respect for them I created a site just to log what he was saying along with my responses.  The fact that this blog doesn't get much traffic says more about B than it does about me, I'm afraid.  But in time I think people will catch on and start to do some research on B and this site will have plenty to offer.   


Breitling refers to my post "The Breitling Catalog" as "The Breitling Report".  He's reading here so I assume that he intentionally misstated the name so as to keep people from finding it in a keyword search.  I don't really care, but I do find this amusing.  I mean anybody who knows how to do keyword searches can find the blog just by taking a few phrases out of what he reads and typing that into Google.  Anyway, he says his rebuttal to that post totally burned me and probably drove me "vomiting at the mouth" nuts.  Interesting isn't it that the profanity and the namecalling don't come from this end, but somehow I'm the unstable one?


Next, Breitling claims that he never expected it to RV in 2010 or 2011.  (2:18)  Let's review what he said and you can be the judge.


On Nov. 29, 2010 B said:

Breitling: LOOK IT IS REALLY ON THE TABLE FOR THIS TO END THIS YEAR

Breitling: THEY ARE PRIMED

Breitling: WE SHOULD HAVE BEEN CASHED IN BY NOW

Breitling: ACCORDING TO MY BEST SOURCES

Breitling: THEY ARE IN SHOCK HOW IRAQ CAN MESS THINGS UP


http://exchangetidbits.com/archives/2010/11/breitling-chat-ddc-112910




And then:


6-1-2011 Guru Breitling JUNE 1ST TO JUNE 30TH...99% sure... NEVER BEEN CLOSER AND YOU SHOULD BE HAPPY, BECAUSE THIS IS REAL....86 TO THE EURO I THINK THE EURO IS 1.34 RIGHT NOW...What's left to do to RV? SEATING OF SECURITY , LAW PASSED ON THE CURRENCY , DFI TRANSFERED TO THE NEW ACCOUNTS




http://www.dinarguru.com/dinar-guru-archive2.html


I would say that "99% sure" qualifies as "expecting it".  No, he didn't predict anything, and I didn't say that he did. But he was clearly expecting it and that's what I said in my last post.  Where did I lie?  The point that I was making is that B says now that it's not a get rich quick scheme, but he was saying $.86 to $1.34 in June 2011.  How is that anything other than getting rich quick for somebody with one or two million dinar?


B then questions my claim that Roger Dorman said the average dinar investor holds about 1.2 million dinar.  Well here's the quote and the link, B.


yahoogle: happy belated b-day! I’m not sure if we are to questions yet. But here’s mine. I wonder if you have an estimate in mind as to how many American’s currently have IQD’s?
DinarDaddy: I know for a fact there are over 3 million Americans who hold Dinar right now… may be closer to 3.5 Million
yahoogle: Also, I wonder how much Dinar on Average these American’s have? And I wonder what type of consequences might be in store for us as a nation given such an immediate influx of wealth to so many people?
DinarDaddy: I’m not sure, but the number I heard sometime ago was around 1.2 million average


http://exchangetidbits.com/archives/2011/06/dinar-daddy-chat-ddc-6211/




B then tries to twist it around to say that I said Roger was predicting a $1 RV.  I didn't say anything about Roger's rate.  I simply mentioned his estimate of how much dinar the average investor holds and based my calcuation on that using Breitling's $1 RV figure. 


B then takes issue with my statement that many people bought dinar based on what he said, suggesting that I said that he told them to buy dinar.  No, I didn't say that he told them to.  I said based on what he said.  For example, Breitling has said things like "the more you buy the less the risk" and "buy more dinar".  (Come to think of it I guess he did tell them to.)  He said repeatedly "while you wait, accumulate."  He even offered the Breitling Insurance deal where you could get a $10 discount and a 500 dinar note with any 250,000 dinar purchase from The Treasury Vault.   This is all documented in The Breitling Catalog (not The Breitling Report ;-).  Then there are the numerous emails he has read where people tell him that they're following his strategy of buying lower denoms.   


B then disputes my claim that he hasn't offered any documentation to prove that Iraq is reducing their money supply.  He says that he has mentioned reports.  That's not documentation.  Documentation requires a document.  Let's see the document.  Give us a link or two, guy.  Give us something official to read that will substantiate what you're saying.  I try to link to back up just about everything I say.  Why can't you?  You have a blog.  Use it to prove what you say.  I'm a reasonable man.  If I read something from the CBI that says "we've reduced our money supply" I'll give it full consideration.  But please don't give us a link to that story about notes.  I'm talking about totals.  Money supply figures.  As I've pointed out before you can reduce the number of notes and still have more money, like when you get change at the store.  You hand the cashier a twenty and she hands you two fives and four ones.  She now has fewer notes but more money in her register, doesn't she?


B then disputes that they have 70 trillion dinar.  Here his argument is not with me.  It's with the CBI. 

Actually it's a bit more than 70 trillion, but the reserves are a bit more than $60 billion so it evens out.  Yeah, they're going to reduce the money supply if they redenominate.  But for now it seems that they're content to just print more money. 


B then disputes my claim that their money supply figures would need to be off by more than 99% to justify an RV to $.86.  Okay, let's do the math.  They're backing their currency 100% with their foreign reserves which total about $60 billion.  With the M2 at 70 trillion that comes to about $.00086 per dinar.  Now if you take that same $60 billion and divide it by 70 billion you would get $.86, right?  So 70 billion dinar is the M2 that they would need to justify an RV to $.86. 


Okay, now subtract 70 billion from 70 trillion and you get 69.93 trillion.  That's how much they would need to be off.  Now divide 69.93 by 70 and you get .999 or 99.9%, which I believe is more than 99%. 


B then disputes my claims that Turkey's inflation had bottomed out around 8% before they lopped, and that they had over 8% GDP growth at the time.  He doesn't like my documentation.  Okay.  Try these.  (Turkey lopped Jan. 1, 2005)


http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&idim=country:TUR&dl=en&hl=en&q=turkey+gdp+chart#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=ny_gdp_mktp_cd&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=region&idim=country:TUR&ifdim=region&tstart=932965200000&tend=1311656400000&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false


http://www.euroekonom.com/graphs-data.php?type=gdp-growth-turkey


http://www.tradingeconomics.com/turkey/inflation-cpi


http://www.aboutinflation.com/inflation-rate-historical/turkey-inflation-rate-historical-chart




B then claims that the Fed bought trillions of dinar, but alas .... no documentation. 


B says that I cited one bogus story about the new 50 dinar note to support my view.  Not at all.  I was commenting on his response to a listener when he raised the issue of the new 50, and rather than say the story was bogus B theorized that maybe they just don't like the way it looks.  I agree that story was contradicted by a following article and I even stated then when I wrote about it in The New 50 Dinar Note.  But B was the one saying that they would have a new 50 note yesterday, not me.  I was just commenting on his explanation for why they might issue a new 50. 


He then comments on my statement that no revaluation in history has required the use of new currency.  To my surprise he didn't dispute that, so in effect he's acknowledging that what he expects to occur here is unprecedented.  I'm impressed. 


B says he's not making this stuff up, he's just telling people what the CBI is saying.  That's my point.  The CBI isn't saying what B says they're saying.  They're saying they're going to do what Turkey did.  They're saying they're going to redenominate.  They're saying they're going to delete three zeros from their currency and reduce the money supply to 1/1000 of its current volume and increase the value to 1000 times the current value.  All of this describes a lop. 


B says that 100 Iraqis dying in a bombing is irrelevant, and it has no negative significance to the investment.  Au contraire.  Political conditions and stability are always considerations when it comes to a currency's value.  I'm not saying it's the most important factor but it's certainly a factor.  If you were a businessman considering doing business in Iraq would the carnage of 100 bodies make you more or less likely to live and work there?  If fewer people want to do business because of the instability and lack of security that will affect their economic growth, especially in the non-oil business sectors.  How could anybody consider that irrelevant?


The last 8 minutes of his rebuttal are incomprehensible for me unfortunately, but I think he's saying that I should get out of this investment.  That's my take on it anyway.  If you can glean more from it than I did then I tip my hat to you.  And now if you'll excuse me, I'm due for my shock therapy treatment.  Vomiting at the mouth again, you see.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SAZKJ88o7ao&feature=plcp


http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2012/02/breitling-catalog.html

http://dinardouchebags.blogspot.com/2011/10/breitling-busted.html